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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers Free Pick 9/22/13

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

NFL Football: Sunday, September 22, 2013 at 1:00 pm (Paul Brown Stadium)

The Line: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 -- Over/Under: 48 See the Latest Odds

TV: Fox

The Green Bay Packers head to Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon to face off against Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-1 on the season after their 20-10 Monday Night Football victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Bengals aren’t playing the most exciting ball in the NFL right now, but with a solid passing game, and a very good defense, this Bengals team is always a tough out.  The Bengals moved the ball very well against the Steelers on Monday night, racing up 407 yards of total offense against the Steelers.  Bengal QB Andy Dalton was solid, completing 25/45 for 280 yards and a score, finishing with a QBR of 39.5.  Green Ellis carried the majority of the workload in the backfield for the Bengals, leading the team with 75 yards on 22 carries, but rookie Giovanni Bernard also showed us some glimpses as the rookie back rushed for 38 yards on just eight attempts.  A.J. Green led the Bengals in targets with 14, but tight end Jermaine Gresham was the leading pass Catcher on the day for Cincy, hauling in six passes for 66 yards.  The Bengals defense is playing very well this season, and that was no different on Monday.  The Steelers were held to just 278 yards of total offense as this Pittsburgh offense is still trying to find its rhythm.  Roethlisberger was solid for Pittsburgh, throwing for 234 yards and a score, but until Pitt finds some kind of ground game, this team will struggle.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers Free Pick 9/22/13

Rob Leifheit-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers just completely dismantled the Washington Redskins this past weekend.  The Packers defeated Washington 38-20, but it wasn’t even that close.  The Packers put up 580 yards of total offense on the day, and honestly it could have been worse if Green Bay hadn’t taken its foot off the gas.  Aaron Rodgers was outstanding, and showed us once again why he is the best signal caller in the league.  Rodgers threw for 480 yards and four scores on the day, with no turnovers.  The Packers lost Eddie Lacy to a concussion early on, and in his place was James Starks.  Starks went off for the Packers, having a career day.  The Green Bay running back carried the ball 20 times for 132 yards and one score, just gashing through the Redskin front seven.  Both Jones and Cobb finished the day with over 100 yards receiving for the Packers.  Defensively the Packers have faced the Niners and the Redskins, two very good run teams from a season ago, and essentially the Packers just shut them down. 

In a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points, the Packers are just 1-4 against the spread.  So far this season, Green Bay is 1-1 against the number, and in the last three seasons, Green Bay is 22-15 against the spread.  The Bengals are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games off a divisional game, and in their last seven games in the month of September; the Bengals are 5-2 against the number.  So far this season Cincy is 1-0 against the spread.

I really want to take the Bengals here, but I just can’t do it.  I love the way Cincy plays ball, but I just can’t back Dalton over Rodgers, who is in my opinion the best QB in the league.  The Bengals have the better defense, and home field advantage, but Green Bay is firing on all cylinders, and last week the Packers looked they were playing mad after losing to the Niners in week one. 

The Bengals definitely keep this one close, but as long as the number is under three for the Packers, I’ll lay the points.

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Green Bay -1.5

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