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Written by Steven Smith on September 18, 2013

Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams Free Pick 9/22/13: Steve's Free NFL Football Pick Against the Spread
Photo by: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys hope to get back into the win column on Sunday when the Cowboys host the St. Louis Rams.

The St. Louis Rams head to Dallas on Sunday to face off against Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys.

The Dallas Cowboys fell to the Kansas City Chiefs this past weekend 17-16.  Dallas controlled things most of the first half, despite losing the field position battle to the Chiefs nearly the whole game.  The Cowboys struck first after the break, going on a long drive, resulting in a FG, putting the Cowboys up 13-7.  The Chiefs then rallied back on a TD pass from Smith to Bowe, bring the score to 14-13 in favor of the Chiefs.  After a couple shared field goals in the fourth quarter, and some questionable calls both ways, the Chiefs ended up on top.  Dallas managed just 318 yards of offense on the day against the Chiefs stingy defense.  Romo threw the ball 42 times on the day, and despite the fact that the Cowboys said they want to get back to running the ball more, Murray had just 12 carries on the day for 25 yards.  Romo threw for 298 and a score against the Chiefs secondary, with Bryant leading the Cowboys in receiving, with nine grabs for 141 yards and a score.  Although Bryant did drop a pass down the sideline late in the game that would have either scored, or put the Cowboys in prime position.

The St. Louis Rams fell to the Falcons on Sunday in what was definitely a tale of two halves.  The Falcons jumped out to a huge lead, leading the Rams 24-3 at the break.  St. Louis came crawling back in the second half however, and the Rams closed the gap to seven with just over two minutes remaining when Tavon Austin hauled in a TD pass from Bradford.  It wouldn’t be enough, however, as the Falcons held on for the 24-31 win over the Rams.  St. Louis has one of the best defensive units around, and all and all are a good team.  The Rams outgained the Falcons on the day 421-393, and had St. Louis not fallen behind by so much early on, would have likely won the game outright.  Bradford threw for 352 yards against the Falcons and three scores against just one pick, giving Bradford a QBR on the day of 58.12.  Richardson led the Rams on the ground, rushing for 35 yards on just ten attempts.  This is a team that would like to run the ball more, and I feel they will in the future, just when you’re down so big, so fast, you have to play catch up. 

In their last five games against the NFC East, the Rams are just 1-4 overall, and 1-4 against the spread.  The rams are also just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games in September.  So far this season the Rams are 0-2 against the number.  The Cowboys are 6-14 against the spread in their last 19 games as a favorite, and in home games, the Cowboys are just 4-13 against the number.  So far this season however, the Cowboys are 2-0 against the spread.

I’m going to have to take the Rams here.  I think we are getting some very good line value here with the Rams with the current number being over 3.5.  The Cowboys are a good team this year, but they need to run the ball and until Dallas shows me that they are committed to the run, I just can’t put a ton of faith in this team.  The Cowboys famously don’t play as well at the Jerry Dome, and St. Louis is just the kind of team that can come in and knock them off.  Close game, the Cowboys probably win, but getting more than a field goal with this Rams team looks solid.

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Steve's Pick: St. Louis +4


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