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Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Free Pick 9/29/13

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)

NFL Football: Sunday, September 29, 2013 at 1:00 pm (Ralph Wilson Stadium)

The Line: Buffalo Bills +3.5 -- Over/Under: 44.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens face off on Sunday in Orchard Park for a week 4 NFL match up.

The Baltimore Ravens started the season with a rough loss at Denver where they were run over in the second half but just when everyone was ready to cast off the defending Super Bowl Champs they have responded with two wins. QB Joe Flacco has been without Jacoby Jones and even so he has completed 60.5 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and two interceptions but he has been sacked eight times. Ray Rice missed last week and his status for this week still remains to be seen but Bernard Pierce as found the endzone twice on the ground but he isn’t as much of a factor in the passing game as Rice. Torrey Smith has 16 catches for the Ravens thus far while Dallas Clark has 12 and Marlon Brown has 10. Defensively the Ravens are allowing 21.3 points per game and 344.3 yards on average but some of that is just remnant of their second half in Denver. Daryl Smith has 25 tackles, Josh Bynes has 18 tackles, and Terrell Suggs has three sacks. The Ravens still aren’t at full strength but even so they are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for first place in the AFC North.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Free Pick 9/29/13

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sport

The Buffalo Bills are off to a 1-2 start to the season which is only good enough for sole possession of last place in the AFC East. Rookie QB E.J. Manuel is still learning as he has completed 59.3 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and an interception while being sacked nine times. C.J. Spiller left last game with an injury but he says he will be back this week but Fred Jackson has already seen plenty of action this season. Steve Johnson leads the Bills with 17 catches and two touchdowns while Scott Chandler has 12 catches and Robert Woods has seven. Defensively the Bills are allowing 24.3 points per game, 417.3 yards with nine sacks, a fumble recovery, and four interceptions. Kiko Alonso has 27 tackles and two interceptions, Aaron Williams has 25 tackles, and Mario Williams has 4.5 sacks. The 417 plus yards per game allowed is ranked 28th in the NFL, a number the Bills need to improve on.

Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven home games, 4-10-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 in their last eight home games following a loss. Baltimore is 5-1 against the spread against the AFC, 4-0 against the spread against a team with a losing record, and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games.

This one could be tight and while I don’t know if the Bills can get the win at home I do see them keeping it close enough to cover the spread. 

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Buffalo Bills +3.5

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