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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins Free Pick 10/13/13

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 8:30 pm (AT&T Stadium)

The Line: Dallas Cowboys -6 -- Over/Under: 52.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: NBC

The Washington Redskins head to Dallas on Sunday Night to square off against their division rival, the Dallas Cowboys.

The Dallas Cowboys fell to the Denver Broncos this past weekend 51-48.  I would go ahead and do a breakdown of that game for you, but for one, I’m sure you’ve seen all the highlights, and two, I don’t think I am physically capable of typing all that out.  Let’s just say, that the Cowboys looked improved over their loss to the Chargers the week before.  Well, offensively anyway the Cowboys looked improved.  Tony Romo (no he shouldn’t be benched) played one of his better games last weekend.  The gunslinger threw for over 500 yards and five scores on the day, against a Denver defense that, well…is just bad.  The Broncos weren’t able to sustain any kind of rush on Romo until the last drive, and with these kind of weapons around him, if you give Romo time and a clean pocket, he will destroy you.  The Redskins defense isn’t good as a whole, but the ‘Skins are pressuring the quarterback this season, ranking fourth in the NFL with a sack rate of 9.62 percent.  The Cowboys are also middle of the road in protection numbers, as Romo has been sacked 6.47 percent of the time this season.  All that would be well and good, but the Redskins secondary is the worst in the league currently, allowing 8.5 yards per completion and a completion percentage of over 67 percent.  Romo is completing an incredible 71 percent of his passes this season, so look for the Cowboys gunslinger to once again have a solid day.  I’m not talking too much about the run game for the Cowboys, as Jason Garrett, and OC Bill Callahan seem to forget they can run the ball.  The Cowboys are only running the ball 33 percent of the time this season, and against this secondary, that number shouldn’t climb this weekend.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins Free Pick 10/13/13

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Redskins had high hopes coming into this season after winning the NFC East last year, but the ‘Skins have dramatically underperformed this year.  The Redskins are just 1-3 on the season, with their one win coming against the Raiders back on September 29.  Robert Griffin III has struggled this season, and while it is seriously questioned whether or not Griffin is completely healthy, either way, this offense is not getting it done.  The main reason I can see for this is the lack of the read option threat on offense.  Now, I don’t love offenses that run the read option too often, as getting you quarterback hit by the likes of Demarcus Ware and company isn’t always a solid game plan, but having the threat of the play is effective.  In fact, the deadliest part of the read option (at least in the NFL this season) is the play action off of it.  The read option forces the defense to play predictably as the quarterback now has to be accounted for, and if established, the play action off of it can be incredibly effective.  The Redskins, whether due to injury or not, are holding RGIII back this season, and you can see the effects of that on the scoreboard.

The Redskins are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, and the ‘Skins are just 3-14 overall in their last 17 in Dallas.  The Cowboys are just 2-5 overall in their last seven games, and the Cowboys are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games at home.

I’m going to have to take the Redskins here.  Washington is better than they have played this season, as I believe last season to be no fluke.  The Redskins have had an extra week off to prepare for the Cowboys as well, which is huge in the NFL.  Dallas has to come down somewhat after their loss to the Broncos this past week, and honestly, for Romo and the Cowboys, they probably would have been better off playing this week’s game on the road.  I don’t know if the Redskins have enough to get the outright win against Dallas, but this line look’s incredibly inflated after last weekend, and because of that we are getting a good price here on the Redskins.

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Washington +6

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