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Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Free Pick 10/20/13

Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 20, 2013 at 8:30 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

The Line: Indianapolis Colts +7 -- Over/Under: 56 See the Latest Odds

TV: NBC

The Denver Broncos head to Indy on Sunday to face off against the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Indianapolis Colts have been playing better than most expected this season as the Colts are sitting at 4-2, including wins over both the Niners and the Seahawks.  Indianapolis is of course led by Andrew Luck, who is turning out to be just the guy everyone loved coming out of Stanford.  Luck is currently leading an Indianapolis offense that is ranked 11th in the league in points scored per game, with an average of 24.7.  The Colts are team that likes to air it out (and why wouldn’t you with Luck under center) throwing the ball nearly 55 percent of the time.  The Colts are averaging a solid 6.9 yards per attempt this season, but the Broncos secondary is one of the worst in the NFL right now, giving up an average of 8.1 yards per attempt.  The Broncos are going to have Von Miller back for this game against the Colts, so it will be interesting to see how big of an impact he has on this pass defense after serving his six game suspension.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Free Pick 10/20/13

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos continue their perfect run this season as the Broncos are sitting at 6-0, and have only been seriously challenged once so far on the year.  The Broncos are coming off a solid win against Jacksonville, and although they didn’t crush the Jags, Denver did win soundly.  Manning threw a pick six against the Jags on Sunday, giving manning a pick in each of his last two games (he stinks).  The Broncos no huddle attack is giving teams fits this season, as the Broncos are throwing the ball nearly 58 percent of the time on the year, and completing an astonishing, 74 percent of their (Manning’s) attempts.  Denver is also the most efficient third down team in the league, converting on better than 57 percent of their third down attempts on the year.  This is an area to watch as the Colts defense is great at getting opposing offenses off the field, allowing only a 36 percent conversion rate on the season.  Manning is getting all the praise for this offense, and rightly so, but the ground game with Moreno in the backfield is also shining.  The Broncos are averaging 3.8 yards per rush on the season, and while that definitely isn’t dominant, it’s good enough to keep the opposition honest, which is all that Peyton really needs.  As I mentioned above, the Broncos pass defense is one of the worst in the league this season, but having Miller back should give Denver some sort of pass rush, taking some pressure of this secondary.

The total has gone over in five of the last five games for the Broncos, and the total has gone over 6 of the last 7 times the Broncos have played the Colts.  The Broncos are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at Indy.  The Colts are 13-5 overall in their last 18 games.

Emotions will be high on Sunday, and while the folks in Indy love Manning and will give him all the respect in the world pre and post-game, during the game they will do what they can to make life rough on Peyton.  This is Andrew Luck’s time to shine and become a hero in Indianapolis, beating Manning on his old field.  The wild card I’m seeing here is Miller.  This will be the first time Miller has seen any real meaningful action since last season, and even though he is saying that he is in the best shape of his life…until you get hit you never really know.  I’m going to take the touchdown advantage here with the Colts.  Who in the world knows Manning better than his old organization and some of his old teammates are still on this team.  Manning is smart and will have adjusted any kind of tells or signals, but his tendencies are his tendencies and they know them.  I don’t know if the Colts have what it takes to get an outright win over Denver, but getting at least a touchdown with Luck, in Indianapolis against Manning…tough to pass up.

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Indianapolis +7

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