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Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Free Pick 10/31/13

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

NFL Football: Thursday, October 31, 2013 at 8:25 pm (Sun Life Stadium)

The Line: Miami Dolphins +2.5 -- Over/Under: 42.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: NFL Network

The Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals meet on Thursday Night in South Florida for a NFL matchup.

The Miami Dolphins started the season a perfect 3-0 but since then they have dropped four in a row and they sit in third place in the AFC East. The Dolphins offense has sputtered scoring 21.7 points and gaining a 28th ranked 311 yards per game and they are minus three in turnover ratio. Ryan Tannehill has completed 59.4 percent of his passes  for 1,769 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions while being sacked 32 times. Lamar Miller is averaging 4.5 yards per carry with two touchdowns and Daniel Thomas averages 3.7 yards per carry with two touchdowns but the Miami running game averages just 89.1 yards per game. Brian Hartline leads the Dolphins receivers with 35 receptions and Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson have 30 catches each. Defensively the Dolphins allow 23.9 points and 355 yards per game with eight interceptions, 20 sacks, and six fumble recoveries but they are now healthier than they have been most of the season. Phillip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbee each have 51 tackles and Reshad Jones has 48 tackles. The Dolphins season is getting away from them quickly after it started with so much promise.

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Free Pick 10/31/13

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Bengals are in first place in the AFC North and are starting to have the look of a Super Bowl contender. The Bengals offense is averaging 24.6 points and 369.6 yards per game and they are minus one in turnover ratio. Andy Dalton has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 2,249 yards with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions and he has been sacked 16 times. BenJarvus Green-Ellis averages 3.2 yards per carry with three touchdowns and Giovani Bernard averages 3.9 yards per carry and has 26 catches out of the backfield but the Bengals rushing attack averages just 99.8 yards per game. A.J. Green has 46 catches and 5 touchdowns, Jermaine Gresham has 30 receptions and a touchdown, and Marvin Jones has emerged as another threat with 24 catches and seven of them going for touchdowns. The Bengals excel defensively where they allow 18 points and 322.5 yards per game and they have seven interceptions, 22 sacks, and six fumble recoveries. Vontaze Burfict has 85 tackles, Terrnace Newman has 37 tackles, and Geno Atkins has 5.0 sacks but the Bengals will be without Rey Maualuga who is out for several weeks. The Bengals seem to be getting better every week.

Miami is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven home games, 1-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 1-4 against the spread following a loss. Cincinnati is 12-4-1 against the spread in their last 17 games, 8-3 against the spread against the AFC, and 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five road games. The road team has covered the point spread in the last five meetings of these two.

The total in this one is set at 42.5 and I expect the defenses to be the winners here and on Halloween Night we see some ugliness as this one stays under the total. My stronger play is on who will cover the spread and I will post that on Thursday in the Premium Area and it is available individually through our new App. 

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Under 42.5

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