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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/11/13

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

NFL Football: Monday, November 11, 2013 at 8:40 pm (Raymond James Stadium)

The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 -- Over/Under: 41 See the Latest Odds

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The Miami Dolphins head to Tampa on Monday night to face off against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

The Tampa Bay Bucs flirted with their first win last weekend…and in unspeakable fashion as the Bucs had the Seattle Seahawks on the ropes in Seattle.  The Bucs weren’t able to hold off a late surge by Seattle however, and in overtime the Seahawks kicked a game winning field goal, ending any hopes the Bucs had of winning their first game.  The Bucs made the transition from Freeman to Glennon a few weeks ago, and while the Rookie has definitely had some “rookie” moments, all in all the kid has played well.  Against Seattle, one of, if not the best defense in the league, Glennon played very well, completing 17/23 for 168 yards and two touchdowns, giving the signal caller a QBR on the day of 66.6.  One area the Bucs have really struggled with this season is on the ground.  Mike James took over for the injured Doug Martin, and against Seattle James was outstanding, picking up 158 yards on 28 attempts, giving James an average of 5.6 yards per carry on the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/11/13

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins defeated the Cincinnati Bengals last Thursday night in a very unusual way, the Dolphins sacked Bengal quarterback Andy Dalton as he was falling into the end zone in overtime, resulting in only the third game in NFL history to end with a safety in OT.  The Dolphins started off the season on fire, winning their first three games, including a solid win over the Colts.  The Dolphins then followed that up with a four game losing streak.  Hopefully for Miami and their fans, the Dolphins can use this win against the Bengals as a jumping off point for another streak in the good column.  Miami is a very middle of the road team (as their record would suggest).  The Dolphins are ranked 21st in passing yards and 22nd in rushing yards.  One player I do think has some upside in this offense is their signal caller Tannehill.  The second year starter is playing well for the Dolphins, although his efficiency stats may not always show it.  The ground game for the Dolphins is also looking better with the emergence of Lamar Miller.  Miller is looking like he is taking hold of the number one spot in the backfield from Daniel Thomas, and again against the Bengals, Miller had another 100 yard day.  Miller was also the second leading receiver for the Dolphins against Cincy, hauling in four passes on four targets for 24 yards.  Look for Miller to once again have a solid day on Sunday against the Bucs defense.

The Dolphins are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, and the total has gone over in five of the last seven games for the Dolphins.  Miami is also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road. 

The Bucs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and Tampa is just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven home games.  The total has gone under in five of the last seven for the Bucs at home.

This is my free pick, so I’m going to give one out, but honestly, this might be the first Monday night game of the year I lay off. 

For my free pick I’ll take the Dolphins, but honestly I’ve been back and forth on this one.  I’m hesitant to take Miami with all the turmoil going on, but Tampa looks like a risky pick having to travel back across the country after playing a tough game against Seattle last week.  The Dolphins have had extra time to rest and prepare for this one, and even with all the distractions, I think Miami is good enough to get the narrow win over the Bucs.

Follow me on twitter for more free picks.

Miami -2.5

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