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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/17/13

Cleveland Browns (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

NFL Football: Sunday, November 17, 2013 at 1:00 pm (Paul Brown Stadium)

The Line: Cincinnati Bengals -6 -- Over/Under: 42.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals have been struggling as of late, and the Bengals hope to turn that around on Sunday when the Bengals host the Cleveland Browns.

The Cincinnati Bengals are sitting at 6-4 on the season, going a perfect 4-0 at home this year.  The Bengals offense has been up and down with the play of Dalton this year.  Andy Dalton has had games that make him look like the next Tom Brady (well…ok, not exactly) and then there are games like last week where he looked horrible.  The Bengals offense as a unit is playing well, ranking seventh in the league in passing yards per game, and 18th in rushing yardage per outing.  Cincy came into this season having one of the best defenses on paper, and that unit has not disappointed as the Bengals are ranked seventh in the large against the pass and ninth against run this season.  Cincinnati has won three out of their last five, but the last two weeks have suffered in overtime losses for the Bengals, falling to Miami two weeks ago, and the Ravens this past Sunday.  With the Bengals back home here, and trying to stay up on the Browns, look for the Bengals to play tough at Paul Brown Stadium this week.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/17/13

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Browns are sitting at 4-5 this season, but the Browns are just 1-3 this year on the road.  The Browns had this past weekend off to rest and recover, and they really needed it.  I am a bit concerned however that this layoff will have hurt the Browns possible momentum, after coming off  a big win for them against the Ravens at home.  For obvious reasons there is no love lost between the Browns and the Ravens, and getting a win against Baltimore is always huge for Cleveland.  The Browns are playing excellent defense this season.  Cleveland is ranked sixth in the league against the run, and against the pass, the Browns are also solid, allowing just over 217 yards per game, ranking them 10th in the league.

So far this season, the Cleveland Browns are 5-4 against the spread, and as an underdog, the Browns are a positive 4-3 against the number.  On the road, the Browns are 2-2 against the spread and on the road, when the total is between 38.5 and 42 points, the Browns are 2-0 against the number.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also 5-4 against the spread this season, and as a favorite, the Bengals are just 2-3 against the number.  When playing at home as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, the Bengals are a perfect 2-0 against the spread this season.  When playing against their own conference, the Bengals are 3-4 against then number on the year.

This is one of my strongest plays in the NFL for Sunday, and I will have this game up in the premium section, as well as on the new iphone app. 

For the free play on this game, I’ll make a pick on the total, but I love the side, and have already placed the bet myself.

With the Bengals and the Browns facing off, we are getting a matchup of two of the better defenses in the NFL.  Both of these teams want this game badly, so should expect a low scoring game here on Sunday.  I think we will see a lower scoring game, but I feel the odds makers have been a bit aggressive in setting this total.  The Browns and the Bengals have been putting up points lately, and the Browns have been getting scored on the past few weeks.

Won’t be the highest scoring game of the day by any means, but with the total set this low, there is definitely some value here on the over. 

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Over 42.5

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