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New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Pick, Odds, Prediction 11/24/13

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, November 24, 2013 at 8:30 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots +2.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: NBC

The New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos face off on NFL Sunday Night Football in what could be a playoff preview.

The New England Patriots are coming off of a short week playing on Monday Night and losing to Carolina. While they don’t get much rest, New England needs little motivation for the Broncos or Peyton Manning. The Patriots offense is averaging 25.4 points and 364 yards per game. Tom Brady has completed 58.7 percent of his passes for 2,552 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Steven Ridley, LaGarrette Blount, and Brandon Bolden all see action in the backfield and the Pats have 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Julian Edelman has 52 receptions, Aaron Dobson has 35 catches, and Rob Gronkowski as 24 catches while Danny Amendola appears to be healthy once again. Defensively new England allows 19.9 points and 354.9 yards per game and they are plus seven in turnover ratio. Brandon Spikes has 60 tackles, Don’t’a Hightower has 55 tackles, and Chandler Jones has 55 tackles and 9.5 sacks. While the Patriots seem to be in control of the AFC East they aren’t in so much control as far as playoff seeding with a head to head loss to Cincinnati.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Pick, Odds, Prediction 11/24/13

Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos are playing on their second consecutive Sunday Night but this time they are on the road after beating the Chiefs last week. The Broncos are in first place in the AFC West and would be the top seed in the AFC Playoffs if the season ended today. Peyton Manning has completed 69.9 percent of his passes for 34 touchdowns and just six interceptions and he is looking like the league MVP. Knowshon Moreno has rushed for 600 yards while Montee Ball continues to have trouble holding onto the football. Wes Welker has 61 catches and nine touchdowns, Demaryius Thomas has 60 Catches and nine touchdowns, and Julius Thomas has 45 catches and 10 touchdowns as there are plenty of throws to go around for Broncos receivers. Defensively the Broncos allow 35.5 points and 371.8 yards per game and they are minus two in turnover ratio. Danny Trevathan has 81 tackles and three interceptions, Duke Ihenacho as 53 tackles, and Chris Harris has 48 tackles and three interceptions. The Broncos are looking like a well-oiled machine but their one loss this season was on the road.

New England is 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games, 4-1 against the spread following a game that they didn’t cover the spread, and 2-5 against the spread against the AFC. Denver is 10-4-1 against the spread in their last 15 games, 9-3-1 against the spread following a game that they covered the point spread, and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings of these two.

I expect to see some hard hitting but we have two QB’s who take this matchup personally and then we have Wes Welker returning to New England so there are no shortage of story lines. Look for this one to be wide open and for it to go over this aggressive number set as the total and that is my free pick. I will post my pick of who covers the spread in the Premium Area as well as on the Spots Chat Place App. 

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Over 53.5

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