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Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick, Odds, Prediction 12/29/13

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 1:00 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

The Line: Indianapolis Colts -11.5 -- Over/Under: 45.5 See the Latest Odds


The Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars face off on Sunday in Indianapolis as they close out their 2013 NFL regular seasons.

The Indianapolis Colts are the AFC South Champions and while they aren’t going to get a first round bye they play a style most teams won’t be looking forward to facing. The Colts make plays offensively and get after the QB defensively and while their division came up soft they were all business. Andrew Luck has emerged as one of the top QB’s in the game completing 59.5 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Trent Richardson was acquired to run the football but he has fallen short in that area but he is a solid pass blocker and Donald Brown has rushed for 506 yards. T.Y. Hilton has 71 receptions and Coby Fleener has 51 receptions and four touchdowns as Reggie Wayne was injured early in the season. Jerrell Freeman has 118 tackles, Antoine Bethea has 110 tackles, and Robert Mathis has 17.5 sacks. The Colts offense is averaging 24.1 points and 339.3 yards per game while defensively they are allowing 21.7 points and 357.5 yards per game. The Colts can still wind up the number three seed in the AFC but they are going to need some help.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick, Odds, Prediction 12/29/13

Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t going to finish with a good record but they showed heart playing hard when they had plenty of chances to quit. The Jaguars have lost their last two games but before that they had won three of four games. Chad Henne’s limitations are apparent as he has 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions but he has completed 60.8 percent of his passes. Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for 764 yards and five touchdowns as he is still one of the best. Cecil Shorts has 66 receptions and Ace Sanders has 45 as the Jaguars receiving corps was crippled with the loss of Justin Blackmon who was suspended. Paul Posluszny has 152 tackles, John Cyprien has 98 tackles, and Geno Hayes has 78 tackles. Jacksonville averages just 15.8 points and 290.1 yards per game while defensively they are allowing 27.9 points and 379.4 yards per game. The Jaguars are once again drafting high and they should be a better team next season.

Indianapolis is 6-1 against the spread against the AFC, 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games, and 6-0 against the spread against the AFC South. Jacksonville is 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games overall, 8-20-1 against the spread in their last 29 games against a team with a winning record, and 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in five of their last six games in Indianapolis.

The Colts have a lot to play for and have looked convincing but game between divisional opponents are generally close and I see this one being close enough for a Jacksonville cover.  

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Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5

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