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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - 9/14/14 NFL Pick and Odds

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

NFL Football: Sunday, September 14, 2014 at 1:00 pm (Ralph Wilson Stadium)

The Line: Buffalo Bills PK -- Over/Under: 42.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills play Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Miami Dolphins had one of the biggest week 1 upsets in a victory over the New England Patriots. The Dolphins dominated in the second half, holding the Patriots under 100 yards and to zero points, winning the game 33-20. Cameron Wake sacked Tom Brady twice, the Dolphins forced two fumbles and Jimmy Wilson led the way with seven tackles. It was an overall solid defensive performance from the Miami Dolphins. Offensively, Knowshon Moreno led the way with 134 yards and a touchdown, running harder than ever and almost putting the fins on his back. The Dolphins offensive line also looked improved, allowing just one sack as Ryan Tannehill threw for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was a big performance for the Dolphins and a tonesetter given the way things ended last season.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - 9/14/14 NFL Pick and Odds

USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills also pulled off an upset by defeating the Chicago Bears, 23-20. Due to Fred Jackson’s 61 rushing yards on seven carries, the Bills averaged 5.8 yards per touch, simply gashing the Bears defense. Quarterback EJ Manuel had a solid day as well, completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. Robert Woods led the Bills with 78 receiving yards on four catches, as they won the game on a Dan Carpenter field goal in overtime. The Buffalo Bills defense did allow 427 yards, but they did sack Jay Cutler twice and forced three turnovers. Leodis McKelvin led the Bills with 13 tackles, Corey Graham had three pass deflections and Brandon Spikes had one of the team’s two sacks. Like the Dolphins, the Bills will be eager to prove that their week one win wasn’t a fluke.

The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 2. The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Buffalo.

This is a pick that I should probably have made a premium pick, but I’m giving it out for free. The Dolphins truly surprised me last week and have shown drastic improvement in the defensive and offensive lines. One week or not, the fins will have no problem wearing down the Bills if they bring that same physicality and determination to Buffalo.

I suggest pounding this line before it changes.

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Miami Dolphins PK

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