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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots - 10/12/14 NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction

New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 12, 2014 at 1:00 pm (Ralph Wilson Stadium)

The Line: Buffalo Bills +3 -- Over/Under: 45 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet Sunday in an AFC East clash at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The New England Patriots silenced all their critics by beating the breaks off the Cincinnati Bengals and looking a lot like New England teams from the past. Despite the struggles, the Patriots defense has allowed just 17 points in three of their five games. Overall, the New England Patriots are allowing 21.4 points, 316.2 yards, and they’ve forced 11 turnovers and 10 sacks. Jerod Mayo leads the Patriots with 48 tackles and Kyle Arrington has two forced fumbles. Darrelle Revis is questionable with a hamstring injury. Offensively, Rob Gronkowski has scored a touchdown in three straight games and Stevan Ridley is coming off his second 100-yard performance of the season. The Pats are 7-0 SU in the regular season when Ridley tops 100 rushing yards. Tom Brady is completing 60.5 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and two interceptions, and New England has lost just one game the last two seasons when he throws at least two touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots - 10/12/14 NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

See All Of Our Free Picks and Predictions For this Week's NFL Games

The Buffalo Bills pulled off an improbable upset over the Detroit Lions last week and return home after back-to-back road games. The Bills continue to get the job done defensively, as they’re second in stopping the run and have won nine straight games when allowing 21 or less points. Overall, the Buffalo Bills are allowing 17.8 points, 322.8 yards, and they’ve forced 10 turnovers and 17 sacks. Preston Brown leads the Bills with 43 tackles and Marcell Dareus has five sacks. Kyle Orton completed 69.8 percent of his passes in his first start of the season for 308 yards, a touchdown and an interception. The Bills have 18 passing plays of 20 or more yards, including five from rookie Sammy Watkins. And while Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have yet to produce a rushing touchdown, the Bills are averaging four yards per carry.

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games and 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Buffalo, while the favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.

The Buffalo Bills have not beaten the New England Patriots since September of 2011. And if the Pats play with the same energy they played with against the Bengals, that streak isn't going to end here. I see a low scoring game, which is why I'm not even going to bother with the points and just take the better team to just win for the fairly decent price. 

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New England Patriots -155

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