Saints vs. Packers - 10/26/14 NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction
Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)
NFL Football: Sunday
The Line: New Orleans Saints PK -- Over/Under: 55 See the Latest Odds
The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints play Sunday night at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
The Green Bay Packers have won four straight and are starting to look like the Super Bowl contender we once thought. Aaron Rodgers is completing 66.8 percent of his passes for 18 touchdowns and one interception. Throwing nine touchdowns in his last three games, the Packers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 regular season games when Rodgers doesn’t throw an interception. The Packers have 20 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have combined for more than 1,000 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. Nelson and Cobb have at least one touchdown in four straight games.Davante Adams and Andrew Quarless are the other Green Bay players who have a receiving touchdown this season. The Packers ground attack is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and Eddie Lacy leads the way with 369 yards and has scored all four of his touchdowns in his last four games. Defensively, the Green Bay Packers allow 21 points, 362.7 yards, and they’ve forced 14 turnovers and 16 sacks. Morgan Burnett leads the Packers with 58 tackles and Tramon Williams has seven pass deflections.
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The New Orleans Saints continue to struggle but return home where they’re 2-0 SU on the season. The Saints issues start on defense where they’re allowing 27.5 points, 373.7 yards, and they’ve forced four turnovers and nine sacks. The Saints have lost 11 of their last 13 regular season games when allowing 24 or more points. Curtis Lofton leads the Saints with 56 tackles and Junior Galette has four sacks. Offensively, Drew Brees is completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Brees has thrown two touchdowns in five straight games, but he also has four picks in his last two games. Jimmy Graham leads the Saints with 376 receiving yards and three touchdowns, as New Orleans has 18 passing plays of 20 or more yards. The Saints ground game averages 4.9 yards per carry and Khiry Robinson has 80 or more rushing yards in two of his last three games.
The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Saints are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 home games and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 8. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
I know the New Orleans Saints are a much better team at home and nearly unbeatable in the dome during primetime. However, the Packers are just the better team heading into this matchup and is one of a few veteran teams that won’t fold under the pressure and crazy crowd. You have to pressure Aaron Rodgers to beat him, and the Saints defense has been brutal for much of the season and is making very little game changing plays. The Packers should score a ton here and win outright.