Dolphins vs. Bills - 11/13/14 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
NFL Football: Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 8:25 pm (Sun Life Stadium)
The Line: Miami Dolphins -4.5 -- Over/Under: 42 See the Latest Odds
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins play Thursday night at Sun Life Stadium.
The Buffalo Bills have split their last six games and could use a win here to boost their playoff chances. The Bills are led by a defense that’s allowing 20.2 points, 320.7 yards, and has forced 19 turnovers and 34 sacks. The Buffalo Bills have allowed 24 or less points in 10 of their last 12 games. Preston Brown leads the Bills with 68 tackles and Marcell Dareus has 10 sacks. Offensively, Kyle Orton is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Orton has thrown five touchdowns and zero picks in his last two games, and the Bills have 32 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Sammy Watkins has become a playmaking machine with five touchdowns and 617 receiving yards, while former Dolphin Chris Hogan has caught a touchdown in two of his last four games. The Bills ground game is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, as Anthony Dixon has topped a combined 100 rushing yards in his last two games.
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The Miami Dolphins have won three of their last four games and are 2-2 at home. Like the Bills, the Dolphins are defensive driven, led by a group that’s allowing 19 points, 309.8 yards, and has forced 19 turnovers and 28 sacks. The Miami Dolphins have allowed 24 or less points in nine of their last 12 games. Jelani Jenkins leads the Dolphins with 63 tackles and Cameron Wake has 8.5 sacks. Offensively, Ryan Tannehill is completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Tannehill has four touchdowns and one pick in his last two games, and the Dolphins have won four of their last six games when he doesn’t throw an interception. Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry have combined for more than 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, while Charles Clay has 12 of his 34 receptions in his last two games. The Dolphins running game that’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry could suffer with the loss of left tackle Branden Albert, but the fish are expected to get Lamar Miller back on the field.
The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11 and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, while the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Miami Dolphins have lost three straight games to the Buffalo Bills, but they're a much better team than they were when these two clubs met in the second week of the season. I am concerned about Miami's offensive line against Buffalo's defensive line, but overall the Dolphins are the better overall team that should win by a touchdown. Miami will finish the job here and take another step towards making the playoffs in a wide open AFC.