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Colts vs. Patriots - 11/16/14 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, November 16, 2014 at 8:30 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

The Line: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 -- Over/Under: 57.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: NBC

The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday night in the game of the week at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The New England Patriots have won five straight and have simply been rolling since losing to the Cincinnati Bengals over a month ago. Tom Brady has been on fire, completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. Brady has 12 touchdowns and one pick in his last three games, and the Patriots have won 20 of their last 21 games when he throws at least two touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman have combined for more than 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Brandon LaFell has 17 of his 36 receptions in his last two games. The Patriots have 28 passing plays of 20 or more yards and are averaging 11.1 yards per catch. The Pats ground game is averaging 3.6 yards per carry and Shane Vereen has less than 50 rushing yards in four straight games. Defensively, the New England Patriots are allowing 22 points, 355.1 yards, and they’ve forced 18 turnovers and 22 sacks. Jamie Collins leads New England with 61 tackles and Rob Ninkovich has four sacks.

Colts vs. Patriots - 11/16/14 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts have won six of their last seven games and are starting to run away with the AFC South. The Colts have the best passing game in the league behind Andrew Luck, who is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Luck has nine touchdowns and two picks in his last two games, and the Colts have won five straight regular season games when he doesn’t throw an interception. T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne have combined for more than 1,400 receiving yards and five touchdowns, while Dwayne Allen has caught a touchdown in six of his last seven games. The Colts have 48 passing plays of 20 or more yards and are averaging 12.3 yards per catch. The Colts ground game is averaging four yards per carry and Ahmad Bradshaw has scored four touchdowns in his last four games. Defensively, the Indianapolis Colts are allowing 23.4 points, 361.7 yards, and they’ve forced 15 turnovers and 24 sacks. D'Qwell Jackson leads the Colts with 70 tackles and Vontae Davis has 14 pass deflections.

The Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Colts are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Indianapolis, while the underdog is 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

The same reason I backed the New England Patriots straight up against the Denver Broncos, I can't turn down Tom Brady and the plus money. The Pats are probably playing the best football of any team in the NFL over the last month and they seem to be on a mission to return to the Super Bowl for what feels like the 100th time. The Colts are great and tough to beat in their dome, but the value of New England and the plus money is too good to pass up. 

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New England Patriots ML

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