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Patriots vs. Bills - 12/28/14 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills (8-7) at New England Patriots (12-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 28, 2014 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -5.5 -- Over/Under: 44 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills face off on Sunday at Gillette Stadium in week 17 NFL AFC action.

The New England Patriots have clinched the AFC East and home field advantage in the playoffs so they don’t have much at stake in this one. The Patriots are averaging a NFL best 30.6 points and 372.5 yards per game and they are led by QB Tom Brady who has completed 64.5 percent of his passes with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Patriots have used several running backs but they have all been effective but as of late it has been Shane Vereen, Brandon Boldin, and Jonas Gray. Julian Edelman is New England’s top receiver with 92 catches and four touchdowns and Rob Gronkowski has 82 catches and 12 touchdowns. The Pats defense allows 19.7 points and 349.2 yards per game and they are plus 11 in turnover ratio. Jamie Collins has 111 tackles, Dont’a Hightower has 89 tackles, and Rob Ninkovich has 8.0 sacks. The Patriots have looked machine-like most of the season.

Patriots vs. Bills - 12/28/14 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills are 8-7 this season and while they won’t be going to the playoffs it was a pretty big step forward for this franchise. The Bills offense is averaging 21.7 points and 321.9 yards per game and they are led by QB Kyle Orton who has completed 63.9 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Fred Jackson has rushed for 467 yards and C.J. Spiller is active once again and Sammy Watkins has 62 catches and Robert Woods has 61 catches. The Bills defense allows 18.7 points and 315.7 yards per game and they are plus 8 in turnover ratio. Preston Brown has 104 tackles, Nigel Bradham has 100 tackles, and Mario Williams has 13.5 sacks. The Bills are just a piece or two away from putting the puzzle together.

New England is 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games, 8-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, 2-6 against the spread on the road against a team with a winning home record, and 3-7 against the spread after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. The road team has covered the point spread in 13 of the last 19 meetings of these two.

With the Patriots having very little to play for the public will be on the Bills, I am going with the best home team in football.

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New England Patriots -5.5

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