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Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons - 10/9/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 4:05 pm (Sports Authority Field at Mile High)

The Line: Denver Broncos -6.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX

Up at Sports Authority Field on Sunday, October 9, the Atlanta Falcons will visit the Denver Broncos in cross-conference NFL Week 5 action. 

The Falcons dropped their season opener, but since then have gone 3-0 for a healthy 3-1 record after four weeks. Atlanta’s latest victory came this past Sunday against Carolina 48-33. QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones both set some records for the Falcons in the win; Ryan bagged a franchise-high 503 passing yards with four touchdowns, and Jones put up a whopping 12 receptions for 300 yards, which was another Atlanta record. RB Devonta Freeman was a bit lost in the shuffle, but still contributed a team-high 57 rush yards with a touchdown on 13 carries for the Falcons. 

Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons - 10/9/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

So far this year, Ryan has been cooking on a 101-of-140 line for 1473 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Jones leads the way for Atlanta through the air with 22 receptions, 488 yards and three scores. Freeman has been the main contributor for the Falcons on the ground, rustling up 322 yards and one score on 55 attempts. 

As for the Broncos, they’re sitting pretty at 4-0 this year, with their most recent win coming against the Buccaneers 27-7. The game was tied after the first quarter at 7-7, but from there it was all Denver. QB Paxton Lynch put up a 14-of-24 line for the Broncos with 170 yards and one touchdown, while C.J. Anderson rushed 19 times for 49 yards and one TD. Demaryius Thomas led Denver in receiving with his six catches, 94 yards and one score. 

On the season, QB Trevor Siemian (who is currently day-to-day with a shoulder injury and will start when healthy) leads the Broncos on a 68-of-101 line for 824 yards and six scores. Anderson has given Denver 73 rushes for 252 yards and three TDs thus far, while Thomas leads the team in receiving with 21 catches, 332 yards and two scores. 

The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Atlanta is also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in October, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 5. 

Meanwhile, the Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. Denver is also 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games on grass. 

In their last three games, the Broncos have won each by at least 12 points, and have allowed no more than 20 points to their opponents while scoring at least 27 in each game themselves. Long story short, things are clicking pretty well on both sides of the ball in Denver. Conversely, the Falcons have been thriving solely by their big offense, as the D has given up at least 28 points in every game. Atlanta hasn’t seen a defense quite like the Broncos yet this year, and they’ll be at a disadvantage due to the elevation as well. I see Denver taking this game unless the Falcons can muster at least 30 points, which I don’t think will happen. Give me the Broncos.

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Denver Broncos -6.5

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