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Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - 10/16/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 16, 2016 at 1:00 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

The Line: Miami Dolphins +6.5 -- Over/Under: 48 See the Latest Odds


Down at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday, October 16, we’ve got an NFL Week 6 AFC showdown on the schedule with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Miami Dolphins. 

Pittsburgh cruises into this matchup with a nice 4-1 record, fresh off a big 31-13 victory over the flailing Jets. The Steelers pulled away in the second half of this one, turning a 14-13 lead into a big win with 17 unanswered points. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger was great again here, bagging a 34-of-47 line for 380 yards and four touchdowns. LeVeon Bell provided the bulk of the Steelers running game with 20 carries for 66 yards, and Sammie Coates led all receivers on six catches for 139 yards and two scores. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - 10/16/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction


So far this year for the Steelers, Roethlisberger has a 126-of-192 line for 1496 yards and 15 touchdowns. DeAngelo Williams still holds the Pittsburgh lead in rushing with 71 attempts for 265 yards and three scores, while Antonio Brown is the No. 1 receiver on 37 catches for 447 yards and five TDs. 

As for the Dolphins, they’re currently sitting at 1-4, following a Week 5 defeat at the hands of the Titans. Miami allowed a total of four touchdowns to Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota in that one, and couldn’t find the end zone in the second half. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill had a forgettable day, going 12-of-18 for 191 yards and two picks. RB Jay Ajayi couldn’t find much room for Miami on the ground, rushing 13 times for 42 yards and a TD, while DeVonte Parker led the Dolphins with two receptions for 70 yards. 

On the season, Tannehill is 100-of-156 with 1272 yards and a 6:7 TD:INT ratio, while Ajayi leads Miami on the rush with 31 attempts for 117 yards and two scores. Jarvis Landry leads the Dolphins on 34 receptions for 403 yards and one score. 

The Steelers are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six versus the AFC, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games in October. Pittsburgh is also 5-1-2 in their last eight games overall, and 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games versus a team with a losing home record. 

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 6. Miami is also 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall, and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 versus the AFC. 

Pittsburgh is one of the best teams in the AFC, and maybe even all of football. Each week, the Steelers have looked better than the last, and aside from a bizarre 34-3 loss to the Eagles, they’ve scored at least 24 points in each game. On the other side, the Dolphins simply look lost, and have scored 17 points or fewer in three of their five games. On paper, there’s no way the Steelers can lose this game; the question is how much they’ll win by. With Roethlisberger and Bell both playing extremely well, I think Pittsburgh will only continue to get better, and it starts with a decisive win here.

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Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

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