Written by Dave D. on December 25, 2012
Indianapolis Colts Vs. Houston Texans: 12/30/12 Dave D.'s Free NFL Pick Against the Spread Free Football Picks
Photo by: USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans take on the Indianapolis Colts in a battle of the division’s two top teams.


The Houston Texans (12-3) were stunned last week by a 23-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Indianapolis Colts (10-5) secured a victory and a cover on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs 20-13.

Although Adrian Peterson didn’t get the yards he was looking for to approach the NFL rushing record, his Vikings shut down Matt Schaub and the Texans on the way to an easy victory. Matt Schaub was just 18 for 32 and 178 yards passing with zero touchdowns. On the ground, Arian Foster rushed 10 times for a total of just 15 yards. Foster left the game with an irregular heartbeat, but says he is now fine and shouldn't have any issues going forward. Houston was just 1 for 11 on third down attempts as they struggled to put drives together and were doubled up by the Vikings in the number of first downs achieved (22-11). J.J. Watt had one sack and has 20.5 for the season, but the Vikings were able to game plan around him. The Colts managed just 288 total yards (the Chiefs had 507) but the Chiefs appear intent to lose out and get the first pick in the draft. They assisted that mission with three turnovers on Sunday.  

The Indianapolis Colts didn’t play their best game last week, but they were up against the Kansas City Chiefs, so it didn’t really matter. The Colts managed just 288 yards of total offense compared to the 507 yards by the Chiefs. The Chiefs benefited from 226 yards rushing from Jamaal Charles, but have very little other than that to point to them being a viable NFL team. The Chiefs look like they are committed to losing out and taking the number one draft slot. True to form, Kansas City turned the ball over three times to assist the Colts in their victory.

Trends:

 

Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games at home

Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston

Both of these teams are in the playoffs, but Houston still has some options for a first round bye and even home field advantage if they win and get some help. There is also the matter of rebounding and putting last weeks loss to the Vikings behind them that makes me believe the Texans will come out firing here. The Colts have been pretty salty at home, but Houston has done well on the road too. This sets up as a good day for Arian Foster against a bad defensive front for the Colts. Houston should take advantage on their talent, grab a lead and run their way to a victory. We are on Houston.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dave D.’s Pick: Houston -4

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