BYU Cougars at Oklahoma Sooners (at Dallas)
College Football Saturday September 5, 2009, 7 PM EST (ESPN)
The Line: Oklahoma -21 1/2
While it looks like a home game for the Oklahoma Sooners, this game is actually going to be played at the new Dallas Cowboys stadium in Texas. Two ranked teams meet in just another of the fine slate of games for the opening week of college football.
The Sooners arrive at this one coming off yet another loss in a BCS Bowl game, this one the National Title game against Florida. Oklahoma returns a boat load of talent including last year's Heisman Trophy winner and a defensive tackle ranked by most as one of the best in the country in Gerald McCoy.
The Sooners are just stacked at almost every position and appear poised and focused to make another run at the big game. This season is a mission for the Sooners and it begins with this one.
Brigham Young started last season on fire and most were projecting the Cougars to be the BCS busters last season. QB Max Hall seemed to have it clicking to at least make the trip to NY for the Heisman presentation but it all come to a crashing halt on a Thursday Night in Fort Worth against TCU. TCU walloped the Cougars and they were never the same after that. WHile they still won some ball games and made a bowl, they were hardly the offensive juggernaut they were early in the season.
When we look at this game we see Brigham Young clearly has the size to match up with Oklahoma and they also have the talent as is shown by their #20 preseason ranking. The biggest question is can they avoid the penalties which have just killed them for years?
BYU has been one of the most penalized teams in the country over the past several seasons and mistakes like that could do them in against Bob Stoops' team as the Sooners don't need much help in winning ball games, they seem to do just fine on their own.
Oklahoma hasn't just been a monster on the scoreboard, they have been great against the spread as well and the trends show it. Oklahoma is 6-0 against the spread in their last six as a favorite, 7-2 against the spread in their last nine non-conference games, and 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 overall. BYU hasn't fared as well against the spread going 1-7 against the number in their last 8 and 1-5 against the spread in their last six non-conference games.
I think this is an odd spot for the COugars, being such huge underdogs and the spread may move even higher. I don't think BYU can hang witht he Sooners for four quarters but I do believe this spread is already a little too large when two good teams meet this early in the season. The spread over three touchdowns against BYU also opens it up for a backdoor cover and I hate getting beat that way enough that I'll go with the dog.
Mitch's Pick: BYU +21 1/2 (4 out of 10 confidence rating)
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