College Football 9/5/09

Toledo Rockets (MAC)-Purdue Boilermakers (Big 10)

By Mark • Saturday, September 5th, 2009 12 PM EST

Purdue (0-0) vs. Toledo (0-0)
Line-Purdue -14

Purdue and Toledo have met four times, the last being in 2007 so there is not much familiarity between the two. The only thing both had in common was losing as they accounted for 17 losses combined.

Purdue had a pretty good offense in 2008, averaging 375 yards a game but the Boilermakers couldn't find the end zone consistently, especially in conference games against the better teams. They put up 25 ppg which had them ranked #70 nationally, so their production wasn't all that bad, but the downside to the offense is that most of their skill players and production was lost to graduation. They were especially effective throwing the ball, but with Curtis Painter now backing up Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, there is a huge void at quarterback and to duplicate his productivity of a year ago would be an unlikely scenario. Purdue had an average defense at best, strong against the pass and weak against the run allowing 175 yards per game. To be competitive the Boilermakers have two glaring problems that need attention; quarterback and run defense.

The Rockets upset Michigan last season 13-10, which turned out to be the only highlight of a disappointing year. Toledo also had two glaring weaknesses and that was their poor overall play on both sides of the ball, which was more than enough to seal their fate as a MAC also ran. The Rockets offense didn't move the ball effectively and didn't see pay dirt nearly enough. Toledo needed far more points then the 23 they averaged to have a chance, mainly because their defense was handing out points, allowing 31 per game. Toledo's defense held just three opponents to 17 points or less and surprise, surprise, those were the only three wins they could manage in 2008. The blame should be evenly spread between both units, as the inability of the offense to move the ball often put the defense with their backs to the wall and Toledo's ‘D' just couldn't make key stops.

Both teams have 7 players back on defense but Purdue returns only 5 on offense and the Rockets have virtually the entire ‘O' back with 9 returners. Neither team was a good cover squad with Purdue sporting an overall mark of 5-5-1 ATS with a 3-2-1 ATS record at home. Toledo was only 6-6 ATS and 3-3 against the number on the road. I'm not impressed with either team as nothing either did was noteworthy unless considering Toledo's win over Michigan. Before anyone gets carried away with that, Purdue also beat Michigan and finished one step ahead of the Wolverines in the Big 10 so with a gun put to my head I'll go with...

Pick: Toledo +14

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Comments (2)

capper
written by Moe, September 04, 2009

would love to know where your getting Toledo +14

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written by Mitch, September 04, 2009

the lines we use are as of the day the article ws written, we use Bet Jamaica currently for our lines but that is subject to change. If the line moves and you want to know if someone still feels the same way, feel free to ask.

Mitch

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