| 25 November 2009
Texas A&M (6-5) vs #3 Texas (11-0)
Line: Texas -21
Texas continued its undefeated season with a 51-20 romp against Kansas last week. Colt McCoy pretty much did everything before leaving the field to the chants of "Colt for Heisman". Playing in his last home game, McCoy threw for 396 yards and four touchdowns, fired the canon after the game and gave the bands big drum a few thumps on his way out. In all, The Longhorn offense put up 532 yards of offense while holding the Jayhawks to just 303.
Texas A&M rolled over Baylor 38-3 last Saturday. The Aggies had several big run plays and finished the game with a season high 375 yards on the ground. Jerrod Johnson passed for 153 yards which gave him the single season passing school record. The Aggies were 10 out of 14 on third downs and turn the ball over just once compared to Baylors three. Texas A&M outgained Baylor 528 yards to 297 in the lopsided affair. Texas A&M became bowl eligible with the win.
Texas is 5-5-1 against the spread this season while Texas A&M is an identical 5-5-1
Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Texas is 1-3-1 in their last 5 games at Texas A&M
Texas's #2 ranked offense (42.5 ppg) matches up against the #99 ranked Texas A&M defense (31.2 ppg)
Texas A&M's 17th ranked offense (33.5 ppg) goes up against the #7 ranked Texas defense (13.3 ppg)
Texas covered a 35.5 point spread last year in a 49-9 win. The over/under was 66
This game is a tough one to call as the numbers point to Texas but the rivalry factor swings things the other way. Last year Texas got up early in the game and the Aggies were forced to abandon their game plan in a catch up effort that left them with negative rushing yards. If you look at the prior four match ups, Texas A&M had won two and lost the the others by just 11 and 13 points. Texas is slated to play Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game so there is a small look ahead factor as well. The main difference I see in this years A&M team is their ability to run the ball. Texas A&M averages 190 yards a game, which is second most in the conference, but it is a team effort as noone for the Aggies is ranked in the top five of the Big 12 as far as rushing yardage. A&M's issues are mostly on the defensive side of the ball where they give up more yards than any other team in the Big 12. A&M will have to get a score early and produce a few stops so that the game doesn't get out of hand early. If they can do those things, they have a great shot at pulling out the cover against a great Texas team.
Dave's Pick: Texas A&M +21
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