09 Nebraska at Colorado

Written by Dave | 25 November 2009

Colorado (3-8) vs Nebraska (8-3)

Line: Nebraska -10

Colorado came up just short in a 28-31 loss against Oklahoma State last week. The Buffalo's took advantage of the Cowboys injury to starting quarterback Zac Robinson in jumping out to a half time lead. Third string quarterback Brandon Weeden righted the ship in the second half however, hitting on 10 of 15 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns. Colorado allowed 232 yards rushing while producing just 13 of their own. Colorado turned the ball over just once while taking the ball away from Oklahoma four times kept the Buffalo's in the game.

Nebraska won a slug fest against Kansas State last week to win the Big 12 North title. Neither team reached 300 yards of offense with KSU finishing with 293 yards against Nebraska's 267. Nebraska was able to hold of the Wildcats when they needed to in their own territory. Three KSU drives started on the Nebraska side of the 50 and resulted in an interception, a missed field goal and a punt. The statistics in the game are all very similar, but it was Nebraska's ability to step up on defense when they needed to that won them the game.

Colorado is 6-5 against the spread this season while Nebraska is 7-4

Colorado is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home

Colorado is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against Nebraska

Colorado is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games against Nebraska

Nebraska is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games

Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

Colorado's 91st ranked offense (22.5 ppg) matches up against Nebraska's 3rd ranked defense (10.3 ppg)

Nebraska's 73rd ranked offense (25.4 ppg0 goes up against the 89th ranked defense of Colorado (28.9 ppg)

Nebraska failed to cover the 18.5 point spread last year in a 40-31 win. The over/under was 57.

This is a match up that is traditionally won by Colorado in regards to the point spread. I think we get a repeat of that this week. Nebraska has been decent in covering this size of a spread on the road, but they haven't done it in spectacular fashion. Colorado however, has been solid at home, especially when you take their overall record into account. Colorado has certainly had its share of issues, and most of those have been internal, but the Buffalo's do not appear to have thrown in the towel on their season despite their troubles. Colorado has lost its last two games, both on the road, by a combined 10 points. Nebraska has won their last four games, but are averaging just over 19 points in those games. It is tough to go on the road and cover a double digit spread when you score less than three touchdowns. I'm on the home dog.