09: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Dave | 14 December 2009

Arizona Wildcats (7-4) vs #21 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3)

Holiday Bowl Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, CA

College Football: Wednesday December 30, 2009 8PM EST (ESPN)

The Line: Arizona -1.5

Arizona and Nebraska come together in San Diego for a rematch of the 1998 Holiday bowl that was won by Arizona 23-20.

Arizona finished the regular season in style with a 21-17 win over USC on the road. The game was a defensive battle much like this game with Nebraska figures to be. The Wildcats were on the road in three of their last four games, but don't have to travel far for this match up. Quarterback Nick Foles is the key for the Arizona as their offense centered around his 2181 passing yards and 17 touchdowns.

Ndamukong Suh didn't leave New York with the Heisman, but he brings plenty of other national award hardware with him along with one of the best defenses in the nation. Nebraska was just one second away from winning the Big 12 title before a Texas field goal send Nebraska packing for San Diego. Going into the Texas game, Nebraska had really turned their season around with a five game win streak.

Arizona is 6-5 against the spread while Nebraska is 8-5

Arizona is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games

Arizona is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games

Nebraska is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games

Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog

Arizona's 41st ranked offense (29.7 ppg) matches up against Nebraska's 2nd ranked defense (11.2 ppg)

Nebraska's 80th ranked offense (24.5 ppg) goes up against Arizona's 46th ranked defense (23.2 ppg)

There doesn't figure to be much offense in this one. Arizona averages over 168 yards on the ground and 238 in the air but would probably be happy with 300 yards of total offense in this game. Arizona comes into this matchup with the better offensive stats and Nebraska counters with fewer yards given up on defense. The two basically cancel each other out but Nebraska gets the big edge on points scored. In their last four games, Nebraska is averaging 22 points on offense, If they get 22 points in this game they should come away with a win as only Texas Tech has managed to score more than 20 points on the Cornhuskers. A middle of the road Wildcat offense is not likely to have any success against Suh and company who should have a happy holiday in this one.

Dave's Pick: Nebraska +1.5

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Comments (2) Add Comment

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written by Matt, December 30, 2009

Hey what are your thoughts on Nebraska now that the line has moved so much?

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written by Dave d, December 30, 2009

I'm still on Nebraska. I don't see them giving up more than 17 points and it might even be lower. Like I mentioned in the article, Nebraska has been averaging in the lower 20's. I anticipate the Nebraska defense putting the Nebraska offense on short fields and likely scoring one on their own. Nebraska has a good running game and Lee is just good enough to keep the secondary honest. The trouble comes in when Lee tries to do too much. Kind of like some of the Super Bowl teams over the last 10 years. Let the defense do the work and the QB just needs to stay out of trouble. I see something like a 24-17 score.

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