09: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Dave | 17 December 2009

Navy Midshipmen (8-4) vs Missouri Tigers (8-4)

Texas Bowl Reliant Stadium Houston, TX

College Football: Thursday December 31, 2009 3:30PM EST (ESPN)

The Line: Missouri -6.5

Big 12 North runner-up Missouri battles Independent Navy down south in Houston, Texas on the last day of the year.

It is tough to determine what Navy's biggest win was this year. Typically any victory against Army makes the season a success on its own. The Midshipmen took care of that task with a 17-3 victory over the Black Knights. However, mixed in with victories over Air Force and Wake Forest was the 23-21 win at Notre Dame. It may have been the biggest Navy win since, well since they beat the Irish two years ago. Navy has won three out of their last four games and eight out of their last 10 contests.

Missouri finished their regular season with a 41-39 win against Kansas in the Border War at Arrowhead stadium. The win was the third in a row for the Tigers who had an up and down season after starting the year with four wins. While the season was full of winning and losing streaks for the Tigers, they pretty much beat the teams they should have (Baylor is the big exception) and got beat by the better teams in the conference such as Nebraska and Texas.

Navy is 4-6-2 against the spread this year while Missouri is 4-7

Navy is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games

Navy is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games

Missouri is 1-4 in their last 5 neutral site games

Missouri is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games

Navy's 60th ranked offense (27.5 ppg) goes up against Missouri's 56th ranked defense (24.6 ppg)

Missouri's 33rd ranked offense (30.3 ppg) matches up against Navy's 20th ranked defense (19.9 ppg)

When the topic of Navy comes up, usually the first discussion you hear is about the triple option. While this rarely used offense is a handful to game plan for, the Navy defense is what wins them games these days. It is that same defense that Navy will rely on to keep this game close. Missouri struggled early against the run before they shored up a few of those issues. If the Tigers still have any leaks in that wall, they will be exploited in this game. Missouri would much rather this game be a wide open gun-slinging contest with Blaine Gabbert leading the way. While the Missouri offense can be a handful, it can also be disrupted. In their three losses to Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas, the Tigers averaged just 12 points per game. While I certainly don't expect Navy to contain Missouri to that low of a score, they should give the Midshipmen offense a shot at winning this game. Navy will have some break away runs and control the clock enough to get this cover.

Dave's Pick: Navy +6.5

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