09: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Dave | 18 December 2009

Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) vs Minnesota Gophers (6-6)

Insight Bowl Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ

College Football: Thursday December 31, 2009 6PM EST (NFL Network)

The Line: Iowa State +3

Iowa State and Minnesota leave the snow of the upper mid-west for the warm Arizona sun for an Insight Bowl showdown.

Iowa State finished an up and down season with a 24-34 loss to Missouri. The Cyclones lost three out of their last four games having won no more than two games in a row this season. Iowa State finished the season with a 3-5 record in the Big 12 Conference which goes to show how many bowl invitations there actually are these days. The Cyclones battled injuries to quarterback Austen Arnaud and running back Alexander Robinson this season which assisted in their inconsistency.

Minnesota closed out the Big 10 regular season with a 0-12 loss at Iowa. While minessota failed to score, they still covered the 12.5 point spread. The loss was the second shutout for the Gophers this season and left them with a losing Big Ten record. Minnesota was just too predictable in their offense with Adam Weber tossing the ball around without much of a run game to speak of.

Iowa State is 8-3 against the spread this year while Minnesota is 4-7

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Big 10 teams

Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games

Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games outside the Big 10

Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite

Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a favorite

Iowa State's 102nd ranked offense (21.1 ppg) goes up against Minnesota's 56th ranked defense (24.6 ppg)

Minnesota's 98th ranked offense (21.6 ppg) matches up against Iowa State's 43rd ranked defense (22.6 ppg)

Offensively these two teams are evenly matched in the passing game, but Iowa State has the big advantage on the ground. On defense Minnesota gives up fewer yards on both the ground and in the air, but the difference is not huge. Once again, it could be Minnesota's inability to run the ball that leads to their demise. Minnesota will have to open up the running playbook with a few wrinkles to have any success offensively. Iowa State has the opportunity to control this game with their running attach which includes quarterback Arnaud. This game is difficult to call as both teams are equally bad and inconsistent. Based on the stronger run game and the spread, I'm on the Cyclones.

Dave's Pick: Iowa State +3

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