10: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Dave | 22 December 2009

Mississippi Rebels (8-4) vs #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3)

Cotton Bowl Dallas, TX

College Football: Saturday January 2, 2010 2PM EST (FOX)

The Line: Mississippi -3

Ole Miss takes on 21st ranked Oklahoma State in the Rebels attempt to win back to back Cotton Bowls.

This will be the forth appearance in the Cotton Bowl for Mississippi and the third in the past seven years. Last year the Rebels defeated Texas Tech 47-34. Mississippi ended their regular season on a sour note with a 27-41 loss that broke a three game winning streak. The Rebels finished in third place in the Southeastern Conference West division behind Alabama and LSU. While the Ole Miss defense ranked slightly ahead of the offense, the tandem of Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster and Shay Hodge have produced 32 touchdowns this season.

Just like their opponents in the Cotton Bowl, Oklahoma State lost their last game of the regular season, 0-27 against Oklahoma, to end a three game winning streak. Outside of losses to Texas and Oklahoma, you would have to go all the way back to the Houston game on September 12, 2009 to find a Cowboy loss. The Cowboys have five wins against teams that are going bowling this season. All three loses also came against teams playing in bowl games. Zac Robinson and Keith Toston led the way this season for the Oklahoma State offense. Dez Bryant was expected to be on that list, but was suspended early on in the season.

Mississippi is 5-5 against the spread this season while Oklahoma State is 5-5-1

Mississippi is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games

Mississippi is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games

Mississippi is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games

Mississippi is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 12 teams

Oklahoma State is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games

Mississippi's 35th ranked offense (30.3 ppg) goes up against the 36th ranked Oklahoma State defense (21.8 ppg)

Oklahoma State's 37th ranked offense (30.2 ppg) matches up against Mississippi's 17th ranked defense (18.6 ppg)

This game is one of the better match-ups of the entire bowl season and one of the toughest to pick. These two teams are nearly identical on offense with Mississippi being slightly better in the passing game and Oklahoma State having a slight edge in the running game. A similar trend is seen on the defensive side of the ball where Mississippi enjoys a big advantage in pass defense, but gives up that much more in the running game than the Cowboys. I'll probably put a little something on the under in this game as both defenses are very good. I'm going to take Mississippi in this game and give the three points based on a slightly tougher strength of schedule and the consistency their offense has shown this season.

Dave's Pick: Mississippi -3

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