10: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread NCAA Football

Written by Dave | 24 December 2009

Michigan State (6-6) vs Texas Tech (8-4)

Alamo Bowl Alamodome San Antonio, TX

College Football: Saturday January 2, 2010 9PM EST (ESPN)

The Line: Texas Tech -8

The Spartans and the Red Raiders battle it out in the Alamodome. The winner will claim their schools first ever Alamo Bowl trophy.

Michigan State finished the regular season with a 14-42 loss against Penn State. The loss was their third in the final five games of the regular season and left the Spartans with an even 6-6 record going in to the Alamo Bowl. This years squad has struggled on defense and in the running game. Last years Spartan team also lost to Penn State in the final regular sesaon game before falling to Georgia 12-24 in Orlando.

Texas Tech ended the regular season with a modest two game winning streak after a 20-13 win over Baylor. This years 8-4 team took a step back from last years version who had only a loss to Oklahoma heading into the bowl season. Injuries at the quarterback position is partly to blame for the Red Raider inconsistency although Taylor Potts still ended the season with 3068 total yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Michigan State is 5-6 against the spread while Texas Tech is 6-5

Michigan State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games

Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 12 teams

Texas Tech is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games out of conference

Texas Tech is 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games

Texas Tech is 0-4 in their last 4 games against the Big 10

Michigan State's 44th ranked offense (29.6ppg) goes up against Texas Tech's 36th ranked defense (21.8ppg)

Texas Tech's 9th ranked offense (36.7ppg) matches up against Michigan State's 61st ranked defense (25.1ppg)

This is not the best of match-ups for the Spartans. While Michigan State is a decent run stopping squad, they allow an average 7.1 yards per pass play and over 250 yards in the air overall per game. Expect that amount to be greatly exceeded here. While Michigan State has plenty of time to prepare for this spread system that the Red Raiders have used for years, they most likely will still be scrambling to catch up with the Texas Tech wrinkles added for the game. Michigan State goes to their run game much more than Texas Tech does, but Texas Tech has played solid defense against the run this season. With the likely-hood that Michigan State will be playing from behind, look for the Spartans to sputter on offense as they become more one dimensional without the superior passing game to do so effectively. Texas Tech is traditionally a poor bowl team as opponents have enough time to prepare for their aerial attack, but in this case the Red Raiders have a match-up that favors them on both sides of the ball.

Dave's Pick: Texas Tech -8

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