Chick-fil-A Bowl Mark's Free Pick College Football Virginia Tech-Tennessee: 12/31/09

Written by Mark | 31 December 2009

Chick-fil-A Bowl-College Football 12/31/09

Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) (SEC)-Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) (ACC)

By Mark • Thursday December 31st, 2009 7:30 PM EST
Line-Virginia Tech -6

Tennessee closed the season by winning four of their last five games by generally playing well on both sides of the ball. I didn’t think Jonathan Crompton was a good quarterback, let alone capable of running an SEC team. At season’s end I’m singing a different tune because he has had a good year and the offense followed suit. He wasn’t alone as Montario Hardesty ran hard all year and when all was said and done the Volunteers had a very respectable #46 rank that produced 396 yards and almost 31 points. With that production Tennessee’s already stout defense didn’t need to have a perfect day to win although their #19 standing says this unit was more than capable of shutting down opposing offense’s and they saw their share in the rugged SEC. They held eight teams to 23 points or less while allowing on average just 21. Hard fought loss’s to Alabama and Florida says this team was capable of playing with the best the conference had to offer.

Virginia Tech came into 2009 with National Title aspirations which for all intents and purposes were squashed in an opening day loss to Alabama. The Hokies proceeded to win five straight to get back in the title hunt before two straight defeats ended all talk of a championship. Tyrod Taylor is as shifty as they come but the reality is he doesn’t have the accuracy to be an effective passer. As it turned out VT didn’t need to rely on the air game with Ryan Williams grinding out over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns. Thanks to Williams the Hokies are the #14 ground game in the land and Virginia Tech put up a solid 31 points each time out. What is Virginia Tech football without a top defensive squad? I don’t know because they were once again the strength of the team that finished in the top 15 allowing just 300 yards. Opponents found the VT secondary nearly impossible to crack, but did find some success running on the Hokies front. Scoring was an entirely different issue altogether, as their defense was one of the toughest to score upon giving up under 16.

Virginia Tech is 0-5 against the spread in their past 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points and 1-4 against the number in their last 5 Bowl games as a favorite. Tennessee is 5-2 against the spread in their past 7 overall and 4-1 in the last 5 as an underdog.

I really like the way Tennessee has rounded into a decent threat when on the attack, which makes them a handful considering their defense is none too shabby. With the improvement of Crompton the Volunteers now have some punch offensively and points are no longer a remote possibility.

That theory will be tested against the always tough VT defense as DC Bud Foster is as good as it gets. The difference could well be how the Hokies offense fares against a battle tested Volunteer D.

People may look at a 7-5 Tennessee squad and scoff a bit but I think they are better than their record and there isn’t a great deal separating the two right now. If I’m right than the points are the way to go…