10: Mitch's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Mitch | 19 December 2009

Louisiana State Fightin' Tigers (9-3) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)

Capital One Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl Orlando, FL
College Football: Friday January 1, 2010 1 PM EST

The Line: Penn State - 2 1/2

When we think of New Year's Day and college football we think of big games and big time programs and this one meets all of the criteria as LSU battles Penn State in the Capital One Bowl.

Joe Paterno sits all alone as the winningest coach in college football but who knows how long he will keep going. I am not sure even Joe knows at this point. Joe Paterno has never been one to tow the corporate line nor has he been shy with his words when it comes to the game he has dedicated his life to, college football. Though he hasn't made any indication that this will be his last game, I don't think anyone out there would be shocked if it was.This season Paterno has once again put together a competitive team who while they fell short in two big Big Ten games, both of them at home as well, he still managed to get the Nittany Lions to a double digit win total and a nice bowl game. Many thought Penn State would go to a BCS Bowl but they lost out to Iowa who had beaten Penn State head to head earlier this year. I was critical of Penn State much of the season for playing one of the softest out of conference schedules in the country and I believe that it did cost them when they needed to step up the competition. Penn State's offense was geared around the running game as Evan Royster went over 1,000 yards. As is typical of Paterno coached teams, the defense was outstanding allowing just over 11 points a game. In their twelve games this season, Penn State gave up 21 or more points just twice and those were the two games they lost. In all other games, the defense was the key to mostly lopsided scoreboards.

At LSU, Les Miles has assembled one of the most talented teams in the country. The Tigers were contenders all year long but never really could get over the hump of beating the better teams as they lost to Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss. LSU had a chance in each of those games but in each instance it was the offense who let them down. It became apparent in the Florida game the LSU's defense could play on the field with anyone in the country but their offense was going to struggle against he better teams. Against Ole Miss, it was more of a coaching blunder that cost the Tigers a chance of victory as they mismanaged their last time out and time expired as they were well within field goal range. Miles has a program that is going to compete year in and year out and it is just a matter of time until all of the pieces click at the same time once again in Baton Rouge. LSU's defense bent all year but they just didn't break allowing just over 14 points a game against a tough SEC schedule. Out of conference LSU didn't really step it up but they did take a long road trip to Washington to get the season started. LSU has the top recruiting class last season and as the players get experience the Tigers will be even tougher.

Penn State is 4-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record, 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite but 0-4 against the spread in their last four out of conference games. LSU has covered in four straight bowl games but they are just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of up to 3 points.

This should be a low scoring hard fought game and while I think Penn State seems to have an edge on offense, it's really tough to tell as when they have been called on to step it up against the better defenses,they have been unable to. This is where soft out of conference scheduling hurts as does playing in a conference which isn't all that tough top to bottom. LSU on the other hand played a soft out of conference schedule played played a brutal conference schedule.

Mitch's Pick: LSU + 2 1/2

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