10: Mitch's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Mitch | 20 December 2009

Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) vs South Florida Bulls (7-5)

International Bowl Rogers Centre Toronto, ON

College Football: Saturday January 2, 2010 12 PM EST

The Line: South Florida - 7

While New Year's Day used to officially be the end of the college football season, it now extends another week and January 2nd starts out with Northern Illinois and South Florida squaring off in the International Bowl.

It's been a crazy few weeks for South Florida as the man who built that program out of a trailer, Jim Leavitt, has been under intense scrutiny for his dealings with players. It's been a trying year for South Florida as they lost the heart and soul of their offense, QB Matt Groethe to an injury that cut short his season. B. J. Daniels stepped in admirably but this had been Groethe's team for so long it was built and game planned around his strengths. South Florida lost three of their last four and five of their last seven games. The defense were what led this team and their leader, George Selvie, is one of the best around. Selvie is one of those rare players that makes everyone around him better. Selvie occupies so much attention and so many blockers, he makes way for other players to gain mismatches and favorable match ups. Selvie could have easily left for the NFL after either of the last to seasons but he and Groethe had set the foundation for something special.

Northern Illinois put together another solid season somethig that has become common for the Huskies. Though NIU came close to getting to the top of the MAC, it once again avoided them as they ended the season with losses to Ohio an Central Michigan, the two teams that played in the MAC title game. The historically strong Husky running game was string again this season as they averaged 202 yards per game on the ground. The defense, while somewhat unheralded, allowed just 119 yards on the ground per game and as a defense allowed 21.2 points per game, the exact same amount as their opponent in this game.

South Florida is just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games and 5-13 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. Northern Illinois is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points but they are 0-7 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record and 0-4 against the spread in their last four neutral site games.

With the MAC meeting the Big East, it's a BCS Conference team against a middle of the road team from a conference which hasn't had anything close to a BCS Buster. NIU did knock off Purdue this season and generally plays a tough OOC schedule but I think with the prep time, Leavitt's Bulls will be just too much.

Mitch's Pick: South Florida - 7

Set as favorite

Bookmark

Email this

Comments (0) Add Comment