09: Mitch's Free Pick Against The Spread NCAA Football

Written by Mitch | 31 August 2009

Central Michigan Chippewas at Arizona Wildcats

College Football: Saturday September 5, 2009, 10 PM EST

The Line: Arizona -14

Two bowl team from last year, both of whom return a ton of talent, clash in the desert in an under the radar game which looks like a pretty decent game. The Wildcats look to have their second winning season under Mike Stoops while Central Michigan looks to see just how far their program can go.

While Arizona returns so many players, they lose starting QB Willie Tuitama who accounted for 23 touchdown passes last season and was a key cog in the offense. The defense is littered with mature leadership as this is the oldest Arizona team age wise in a very long time.

Central Michigan returns their best player, QB Dan Lefevour who got a ton of attention before last season but hasn't gotten much this preseason. Lefevour has been injured a few times in the past year but a lot of the success of CMU hinges on his health. Lefevour's isn't alone on offense as all of his top targets return as well.What doesn't return though are his leading rusher and the two tackles. The line will need to get it together in a hurry against Arizona.

On defense the Chippewas have 10 returning starters and their top 12 tacklers. The CMU defense is loaded with solid tacklers and guys who can play football, and their secondary has to be one of the most experienced in college football.

Arizona has a talented backfield of runners led by Nick Gringsby. With a new starter at QB even more pressure will be put on the running game. While the running game was effective last season, tackle Eben Britton needs to be replaced and that won't be easy as he was one of the top players in the country last season. Arizona also loses their best wide receiver but speed and talent are a given at Arizona.

The defense is experienced as well and while the Cats are strong on the defensive line, their secondary is really the standout unit.

Central Michigan is 4-1 against the spread in their last five as an underdog and they are 7-3-2 against the spread in their last 12 on the road. Arizona is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine home games but they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven out of conference games.

Last year Central Michigan played a big school in Georgia and got absolutely blown out of the building, most of the players on the field that day return. CMU also ended last season with three straight losses and had to live wit that all off season.

While I think Arizona has better athletes across the board, I think Central Michigan's experience will keep them in this game and they may even have a chance to win it. Even if they don't win the points should be enough.

Mitch's Pick: Central Michigan +14 (4 1/2 out of 10 confidence rating)