09: Mitch's Free College Football Pick Against The Spread

Written by Mitch | 01 September 2009

Buffalo Bulls at UTEP Miners

College Football: Saturday September 5, 2009 10 PM EST (CBS College Sports, XXL)

The Line: UTEP -8

It was a magical year for Head Coach Turner GIl and his Buffalo Bulls. Buffalo exceeded most people's expectations all year long and won the MAC Title Game by knocking off Ball State. The Bulls will be hard pressed to repeat that same form, for this season at least.

QB Drew Willy is gone and top running back James Starks is out for the season so someone is going to have to step up to fill those big shoes. While Zac Manyard and Brandon Thermillus both saw action, they haven't shown they are Willy and Starks.

The Bulls defense should be strong . They are an opportunistic bunch who got it done by creating turnovers and taking advantage of them. With the offensive losses, the defense will be what makes or breaks this team.

UTEP is a team I look to be making big strides this season. QB Trevor Vittatoe is back for his Junior year. The three year starter gets just about his entire offensive line back and his wide receivers. At running back the Miners do it by committee so while they lose a few, they also gain a few and coud be playing up to five running backs a game.

The UTEP defense is going to have to improve from last season for the Miners to have the type of season they are hoping for. UTEP was a dreadful 115th in overall defense last year so improvement should be too tough but just how much remains to be seen.

Buffalo is 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 road games and 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 as an underdog. UTEP is 1-4 against the spread in out of conference games and 1-5 against the spread in their last six as a home favorite.

Last year when these two met, Buffalo really beat up on UTEP 42-17 at Buffalo. UTEP certainly has the offensive firepower to return the favor but I am just not sold on their 3-3-5 defensive scheme which I think opens things up for a team who can run and who wants to play keep away from the explosive Vittatoe.

When I orginally lookd at ths game I had Starks in the line up and I thought it was an easy Buffalo cover, now I am less convinced. I think Utep may get the win but I think with the points the Bulls will figure out a way to play the field position and ball control game long enough to stay with a touchdown.

Mitch's Pick: Buffalo +8