Written by Mark | 01 September 2009

College Football 9/5/09

Missouri Tigers (Big 12)-Illinois Fighting Illini (Big 10)

By Mark • Saturday, September 5th, 2009 3:40 PM EST

Illinois (0-0) vs. Missouri (0-0)
Line-Illinois -6.5

These teams have some familiarity with one another having played eight times, most recently in each of the last two years with Missouri winning both, 40-34 at Illinois in ‘07 and 52-42 at home last year. Missouri's high scoring offense of a year ago had a few pieces fall off and Illinois is poised to be heard from in the Big 10.

With Chase Daniel and Jeremy Macklin off to the NFL and taking 6,100 yards of offense with them, the obvious question is how do you replace them and that type of production? The short answer is you don't because it's not possible. Blaine Gabbert looks like the opening day signal caller and his 13 attempts in 2008 won't make the Missouri faithful forget Daniel too soon. Gabbert has looked ok in scrimmages but that's against a not so airtight defense to begin with. With Macklin working his magic on Sunday's Missouri could turn to their running game to alleviate some of the pressure on Gabbert. That being the case, Derrick Washington could see an increased workload and the Tigers will need more than 154 yards their rushing attack produced in 2008. A clock eating ground attack could be the Godsend the defense needs from a unit that was ranked near the bottom of college football (#100) and lost 7 starters. The less they see of the field the better in my view.

Despite finishing down the line in conference play, Illinois was a good offensive team reflected in in their #19 ranking in total offense (439 ypg) and not to shabby 29 points per game. Quarterback Juice Williams is their primary weapon as he threw for almost 3,200 yards and when receivers were not open he was also able to tuck it away and run, illustrated by his team high 682 rushing yards. The Illini return four running backs that saw action in 2008 and when Williams and talented WR Arrelious Benn aren't playing catch, there are other options. The biggest concern will probably be the offensive line where center Ryan McDonald and LT Xavier Fulton are gone. Many thought this unit underachieved but with the success Illinois had moving the ball it's apparent they did something right. The Illini were average at best on the defensive side and gave up way too many points (28) and with only 5 starters back the defense looks like the weak link again.

Neither team was very good at covering the spread as Illinois was 4-7 overall and 2-3 ATS at home. Missouri was no better sporting a mark of 5-8 ATS and 2-3 ATS on the road. Missouri returns just 9 starters and Illinois has 13 players back and with neither defense particularly good at keeping offenses in check this could be rather high scoring. It really goes against the grain for me to give a touch down away when talking about two poor defenses and the Illini have looked flat against what was considered lower echelon teams while showing a bit of spunk against some top tier teams. Don't like doing this but...

Pick: Illinois -6.5

Be Sure to sign up for our FREE WEEKLY FOOTBALL PICKING CONTEST WITH CASH PRIZES

Comments (3)

Home Team
written by jd, September 01, 2009

Mark -

Just wanted to point out that this game (and the 07 & 0 is played on a neutral site at the Edwards Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO. Illinois being the home team is really just for scheduling purposes (as Mizzou was last year at the dome). Mizzou and Illinois will both have a ton of fans at this game. The last two years Mizzou has had the bigger number of fans but this year could be different with Daniels, Maclin, Coffman, etc departing and Illinois seemingly having the better squad on paper.

Thanks, JD

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by jd, September 01, 2009

Not sure why the 08 came across with a smiley face, if it happens again it should be 2008.



Thanks, JD

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Mitch, September 01, 2009

THat's Correct, this game is called the Border War and is big for both teams. Normally when week 1 stunk, this was one of the big games, this year it's an also ran with the slate we have

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment

---

Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites