09: Mitch's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Mitch | 02 September 2009

Missouri Tigers at Illinois Fighting Illini (at St. Louis)

College Football: Saturday September 5, 2009, 3:40 PM EST (ESPN)

The Line: Illinois -6 1/2

This is is listed as a home game for Illinois but it's anything but that as it's played on a neutral site, The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. The Border war is a big game for both programs and for the first time in a while it's being played for the third consecutive year.

For the first time in quite some time as well is that Missouri comes in winning the past two seasons. Missouri may have not lost much on the field the past two years at all, they lost a ton in the talent department this year and are pretty much starting over again.

Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Jeff Wolfert and others are all gone. Mizzou is left with a lot of underclassmen and players with very little experience from a team that played well and got a lot of respect but in the end didn't quite live up to expectations. I know it's tough to call a trip to the Big 12 Title Game disappointing but I think the Tigers and their fans were thinking Big 12 Title and possible BCS game.

I would say that Missouri are in worse shape than Illinois was a year ago after Rashard Mendenhall and J Lehman's departure following Illinois trip to the Rose Bowl. This year the Illini are loaded with experienced and talented players and missing a bowl game will undoubtedly cost Ron Zook his job.

On paper this looks like a mismatch but there are a few reasons why the spread is hovering under a touchdown. One of the reasons is this is simply a rivalry game and it sets up to be close. Last year's game was a push though many thought Missouri would have no problem with the Illini. The second reason is that very few coaches could have had a team under perform quite like Ron Zook did last year.

Most people weren't expecting Illinois to go back to the Rose Bowl or anything of that nature but a winning season wasn't too much to expect. Instead, the Illini were on a win one-lose one streak until they finally lost three in a row to end the season, all three of which were games they had the personnel to win with.

Juice Williams has one more year of chances to show he is an elite athlete with NFL skills and it is my hope for his sake he is able to showcase that he has such skills. It is also time for Arellious Benn to shed the underachiever tag and become a team leader who draws double and triple coverage. If Benn can occupy defenders, at worst it will open things up for everyone else.

In this one Illinois will be facing units with Freshman getting significant playing time so their experience alone should be enough to handle Missouri. Illinois is simply a much better group than Missouri at this point of this season and at less than a touchdown seem to be the obvious play.

Mitch's Pick: Illinois -6 1/2