09: Mitch's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Mitch | 05 September 2009

Cincinnati Bearcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

College Football: Monday September 7, 2009 4 PM EST (ESPN)

The Line: Rutgers -5

A battle of contenders kick off the Big East season in Piscataway as the Cincinnati Bearcats come to town to take on the Rutgers Scarlett Knights. Both teams lose key players but still have plenty on the cupboard as well as two of the top coaches in college football toady.

Mike Teel is gone for Rutgers at QB. I always thought Teel was erratic and when he tried to do to much, he wasn't very good. Teel was at his best managing the game and that makes him a little easier cog to replace, as long as the right decisions are made.

Rutgers loses just about all of their most experienced players on offense at the skill positions but I just don't see them being in too bad of shape as all of their offensive line is back. The O-line looked shaky early last year but by the end of the season they were clicking on all cylinders.

I am never concerned about a Greg Schiano defense and this year is no exception. With Ryan D'Imperio and and George Johnson, the Scarlet Knights should be in decent shape despite the loss of five starters.

Brian Kelly is an offensive genius and simply a winner. His winning ways have been contagious since his arrival in Cincinnati.

Last year the Bearcats fell victim to the injury bug at QB and ended the season with 4th string QB Tony Pike running the offense. The silver lining to that injury bug is that the Bearcats return a QB with BCS Bowl Game experience. Pike also returns his main threat at wide receiver in Mardy Gilyard.

Where Cincinnati needs to be concerned is on defense, where they lose 10 starters. I'm sure Kelly has brought in some talemnt and there is still some from last year's stockpile but losing that many regulars has to take it's toll.

Cincinnati is 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog and 4-1 against the spread in their last five Big East games. Rutgers is 4-0 in their last four conference games and finished the season covering five of their last six.

This is the classic offensive genius against defensive guru and while offense may win games, defense wins more games.

Mitch's Pick: Rutgers -5