| 04 February 2010
NBA Basketball 2/4/10
San Antonio Spurs (28-19)-Portland Trail Blazers (29-22)
By Mark-Thursday, Feb 4th 2010 10:30 PM EST
Line-San Antonio-2.5
Portland is grinding toward the All Star break looking to pick up a few wins along the way and most importantly get healthy. With leading scorer Brandon Roy still out nursing an ailing hamstring, many thought finding points would be their biggest issue. Scoring was the least of their worries last night in a 118-105 road loss to Utah. The Jazz chewed up and spit out the 4th ranked defense in the league in easy fashion. The Trail Blazers have now allowed 100 or more points in four of their last five games and have won just four of six.
Utah has had some fairly dominant perfomances against the Blazers but tonight's opponent is a team that Portland has played well recently. They have beaten the Spurs three straight times and look to start making up some ground in the west although playing last night against Utah and facing San Antonio and the Lakers next is not an ideal way of improving one's standing in the NBA landscape. To get the ship righted Portland needs to get back to what they do best and that's playing much better at the defensive end than they have been.
LaMarcus Aldridge has shouldered much of the scoring slack while Roy has been out but it's clear Portland is not the same team with out him. Aldridge did his best to carry the team against Utah with a 27 point, 12 rebound night but the Jazz would not be denied on the offensive end.
San Antonio is probably looking forward to the All Star break as well as they have a few injuries that could use a few extra days of rest. Tony Parker is probable for tonights game as he is dealing with a sprained ankle which is not only painful but limits his mobility. He not only scores the basketball but is good at finding the open man so his passing is also missed. The Spurs come in having won three of four and their veteran line up is able to win with one of their pieces missing but I'm not sure they'd do as well long term.
SAS needs to figure out a way to break their string of loss'e to Portland and when they need to accomplish something it's generally their defense that gets leaned on. The Spurs have always been defensive minded since Tim Duncan first slipped on a Spurs uniform and it's been a highly successful formula with the 7 footer patrolling the middle.
San Antonio is a decent offensive team but they certainly are not a squad that likes the up tempo brand of basketball as their chances of winning games that break into the century mark has diminished. George Hill assumed some of the scoring burden with Parker out by connecting for 23 points in the team's 115-113 win over Sacramento but Tim Duncan is still the center piece of the offense with his nearly 20 points per game. The Spurs can get a big offensive night from anyone that sees floor time so opponents can't really lock down on any one individual for 48 minutes.
The Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 as an underdog of .5-3 points, 12-3 against the number in the past 15 with zero days rest and long term they are 41-20 against the spread in the last 61 as a home underdog of .5-3 points. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 as a road favorite of .5-3 points, 1-4 against the number in the past 5 versus the Western Conference and 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 overall.
I think a healthy Parker would tip the scales towards San Antonio but how his ankle holds up is anybodies guess. But like I said above, there are a number of weapons wearing a Spurs jersey and look no further than the 20 points DeJuan Blair scored against the Kings coming off the bench. The Trail Blazers can ill afford to stay on the losing track and need to win while waiting for Roy's return. Unfortunately, injuries have been almost expected in Portland but up side is that they have learned to play with major contributors in street clothes. I think San Antonio is dangerous in this spot and have the most potential to win going away but I'm siding with the home team in what should be a low scoring grind it out affair.
Mark's Pick: Portland +2.5
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