| 05 April 2009
Major League Baseball-National League
Analysis 2009: Philadelphia Phillies-National League East (92-70)
The Philadelphia Phillies enter the year as defending World Series Champions but have their share of question marks. Can Raul Ibanez replace Pat Burrell's bat? Is the bullpen capable of duplicating last year's stellar performance? The new year brings with it many unknowns and the defending champs are forever under the microscope of the Philly fans and media. New faces replacing the familiar stalwarts, consistency of the starting pitching and depth are major worries for Philly fans, known to be some of the most demanding and critical in all of baseball.
As with any major league team, starting pitching is arguably the most important factor to a team's success. The undisputed leader of the Phil's pitching staff is Cole Hamels, 14-10/3.09 era/227 IP/195 K's/53 BB. Hamels is reigning Series MVP and one of the best left handers in the business. His W/L record belies the fact that he generally was matched up with the opposing team's ace and run support was at a premium. The main concern with Hamels has been durability and elbow soreness this spring has Phillies fans holding their breath. If healthy throughout the season I can see Hamels adding another 3-4 wins to his '08 total. Brett Myers is tabbed as the Phils number two man but was sent to the minors in ‘08 because of inconsistency and legal problems involving spousal abuse. At 46 years young, Jamie Moyer had perhaps the best season of his career, posting a team high 16 victories in ‘08. Joe Blanton, a mid season acquisition from Oakland went 4-0 with a 4.20 era, looks to penciled in at the 4th spot. 36 year old Chan Ho Park beat out JA Happ to round out the rotation, but age, consistency and health are very real concerns.
In the bullpen, righties Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey were effective short men while Ryan Madsen, a converted starter is a dependable long reliever and set up man for closer Brad Lidge. Happ has starter mentality and could be used in long relief if necessary. Lidge will be hard pressed to duplicate his perfect 41-41 effort in save opportunities. The Philadelphia relief corp will be short handed the better part of the first half of the season as left handed short man JC Romero, has been suspended for the first 50 game for using a banned substance. Philadelphia pitching has no doubt been the beneficiary of an offense that was near the too of the league in 2009, at nearly five runs per game.
The departure of left fielder, Pat Burrell has been filled by Raul Ibanez and in my view is a more versatile player then his predecessor. While Burrell was a fixture among league leaders in outfield assists, he was slow of foot and failed to track down catchable balls. In fact Burrell was often removed from close contests late for defensive purposes. His 100+ walks will be missed but Ibanez hits for a higher average and will give the Phils 25+ homers and a 100 RBI's. Shane Victorino has the speed to track down any ball in center field and his 36 steals attests to his blazing speed. Victorino does not have a strong arm but is a great positional centerfielder and has the potential to hit in the .290 area. Jayson Werth is a powerful right fielder with speed and that has 25 steal and 30 homerun capability.
First base is patrolled by Ryan Howard where 50 homers and 150 RBI's is the norm. Howard is a prolific strikeout victim and threatens the 200 K mark every year. Besides cutting back on strikeouts, Howard's needs vast improvement on defense. Throws are often off line and ground balls can be an adventure, while digging throws out of the dirt causes the average fan's heart rate to increase. Chase Utley is one of the premiere second baseman in the game today. Utley has speed, hits for power and average and has great range in the field. Short stop Jimmy Rollins, is a perennial MVP candidate, with 40 steal potential and 25 homer ability. Rollins has as much range as any shortstop in baseball and is a legitimate Golden Glove contender.
Pedro Feliz mans third and has proven to be an excellent defensive player and although an average hitter at best, twenty homeruns and clutch hitting make him a dangerous offensive player. Carlos Ruiz handles the bulk of the catching and very few call s better game. A poor offensive player, Ruiz has a surprising knack for coming up with a clutch hit as he proved in the World series. His backup, Chris Coste is the better offensive player but is not an adept defender and tends to wear down when behind the plate on a regular basis.
The 2009 Phillies are much the same as last year's team. Philadelphia has all the weapons to contend for the NL East title but can not expect everything to fall into place as it did last year. Charlie Manuel has done a commendable job, both managing and handling the Philadelphia media and is a better manager then he gets credit for. I expect the Mets and even the Braves (to a lesser extent) to make more noise in the NL East but I still believe the Phils are the team to beat and the Mets will pose the biggest challenge.
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