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Francisco Vargas vs. Miguel Berchelt Boxing Preview, Pick, Odds, Prediction - 1/28/17

Berchelt vs. Vargas

Boxing: Saturday, January 28, 2017 (Fantasy Springs Casino)

The Line: Berchelt +160 / Vargas -195 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: HBO

Francisco Vargas and Miguel Berchelt fight Saturday at the Fantasy Springs Casino for the WBC World super featherweight title.

Francisco Vargas enters this fight with a 23-0-2 record that includes 17 knockouts. This will be Vargas’ fourth fight since 2015, and he’s coming off a June draw against Orlando Salido. Vargas is coming off possibly the best fight of 2016 in which he threw more than 1,100 punches and the judges couldn't decide a winner. Vargas is an aggressive boxer who throws a lot of punches and has clear stoppage power with his last three victories being decided by knockout. Vargas has solid length with a 70-inch reach advantage and wants to always bring the fight to his opponent. The downside is that it’s not difficult to hit Vargas and the shaky defense can make his fights tough to judge if they go the distance. This will be Vargas’ sixth fight in California.

Francisco Vargas vs. Miguel Berchelt Boxing Preview, Pick, Odds, Prediction - 1/28/17

USA TODAY Sports

Miguel Berchelt enters this fight with a 30-1 record that includes 27 knockouts. Berchelt has won his last nine fights and is coming off a July win over Suriya Tatakhun. Berchelt is a 25-year-old Mexican boxer who has been climbing the ranks the last few years and will get his shot at the biggest fight of his life. Berchelt is most known for his vicious power shots, as nearly every punch is a haymaker and he has a knockout percentage of 87 percent. If you allow Berchelt to get comfortable and unload combinations, it will end bad for his opponent. Berchelt has a nasty uppercut and doesn’t waste time putting a fight away when he has the chance. The concern for Berchelt is that he hasn’t been on this stage often and this is quite a step up in competition. This will be Berchelt’s second fight outside of Mexico and first in California.

There’s clear value in this spot with Berchelt given his overwhelming power, youth and his powerful offensive attack that can put anybody on the canvas. The problem is the experience of Vargas and the fact that he’s just as aggressive as Berchelt. Vargas isn’t the type of boxer who is going to set back and allow Berchelt to unload without any response. Vargas has shown throughout his career and in his last fight that he doesn’t mind trading punches and proving he’ll be the last one standing. This is a fight Vargas is more than capable of handling.

This should be a fun fight to kickoff 2017 between two offensive minded fighters, but you have to give the edge to Vargas.

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