Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin Boxing Preview, Pick, Odds, Prediction - 5/5/18
Golovkin vs. Alvarez
Boxing: Saturday, May 5, 2018
The Line: Golovkin -188 / Alvarez +150 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin fight Saturday for the IBF World Middleweight Title.
Canelo Alvarez enters this fight with a 49-1-2 record that includes 34 knockouts. Alvarez has won seven of his last eight fights, and he’s coming off a September draw to Gennady Golovkin. Alvarez should have lost his first bout since his 2014 fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr, and he would have received the loss if it wasn’t for judge Adalaide Byrd, and her ridiculous scorecard. Alvarez was outboxed in the first meeting and it wasn’t even that close. Alvarez will be 27 years old, he stands at 5’9”, has a 70 inch reach and an orthodox stance. Alvarez is known for his extreme punching power and has produced knockouts in eight of his last 13 victories. Alvarez’s overall offensive ability is elite status, as he’s one of the best combination punchers in the sport, and he has a proven chin and is sharp defensively to go along with it. Alvarez does a nice job of bobbing and weaving punches without giving up much position, and he was able to take punches from GGG without flinching much. You just want to see Alvarez be a little more aggressive in this contest and try to dictate the pace of the bout.
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Gennady Golovkin enters this fight with a 37-0-1 record that includes 33 knockouts. This will be Golovkin’s fifth fight since 2016, and he’s coming off a September draw to Canelo Alvarez. It’s going to be interesting to see how Golovkin rebounds after being robbed in the first meeting, and it may encourage him to go for the knockout this time. Golovkin is 36 years old, stands at 5’10” with a 70 inch reach and has an orthodox stance. Golovkin is a knockout machine, as only five of his career fights have seen a decision, but some would say age is catching up to him given that two of those fights have been his last two bouts. Golovkin is the ultimate pressure fighter who is constantly coming forward, forcing his opponent into mistakes and just waiting for the chance to land the haymaker. Golovkin has a very powerful jab, good footwork and has underrated hand speed for a fighter who has his style. Golovkin does have holes in his defense and does get hit a lot for an elite fighter, but he has a proven chin and was often laughing at the punches that landed by Alvarez. If GGG can eat accurate shots, he should be fine.
I picked Alvarez to win the first bout, but he was clearly outboxed. Alvarez is the younger, more athletic fighter and has a console edge defensively, but none of that mattered when Golovkin was pushing the pace and being the aggressor. Golovkin out punched Alvarez in 10 of the 12 rounds, and it was clear his shots were wearing down Canelo, making him less eager to respond with offense. GGG has clear defensive hiccups, but I’m not sure that matters when he’s able to smile at Alvarez and keep coming forward. If Alvarez can’t make Golovkin think twice about slowing down his offensive attack, he’s in trouble. GGG is pretty much unstoppable when he gets to control the fight and throw the amount of punches he did in the first meeting. We’re also likely going to get an angry Golovkin considering he was robbed, so that’s something to weigh in as well.
Alvarez is probably the better overall boxer, but I didn’t see enough from him that makes me confident in doubling down. I’m siding with Golovkin to get the actual victory this time.