Gennady Golovkin vs. Canelo Alvarez Boxing Preview, Pick, Odds, Prediction - 9/15/18
Photo by Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin
Boxing: Saturday, September 15, 2018 (T-Mobile Arena)
The Line: Golovkin -175 / Alvarez +150 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez fight Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena for the International Boxing Organization World Middleweight Title.
Gennady Golovkin enters this fight with a 38-0-1 record that includes 34 knockouts. This will be Golovkin’s fourth fight since 2017, and he’s coming off a May win over Vanes Martirosyan. Golovkin is coming off an effortless second round knockout over a boxer who hadn’t boxed in two years. It was a nice victory to make sure GGG didn’t develop any rust, but the bout was nothing more than a sparring match that was over before it really started. Golovkin is 36 years old, stands at 5’10” with a 70 inch reach and has an orthodox stance. Golovkin is a knockout machine, as only five of his career fights have seen a decision, but some would say age is catching up to him, as he did have some minor struggles in two of his last three fights. Golovkin is the ultimate pressure fighter who is constantly coming forward, forcing his opponent into mistakes and just waiting for the chance to land the haymaker. Golovkin has a very powerful jab, good footwork and has underrated hand speed for a fighter who has his style. Golovkin does have holes in his defense and does get hit a lot for an elite fighter, but he has a proven chin and wasn’t bothered by anything Alvarez threw his way. If GGG is capable of walking down his opponent, he’s damn near unbeatable. This will be Golovkin’s second career fight in Nevada.
Canelo Alvarez enters this fight with a 49-1-2 record that includes 34 knockouts. Alvarez has won seven of his last eight fights, and he’s coming off a September draw to Gennady Golovkin. It’s going to be interesting to see how Alvarez handles the layoff, as this will be his first bout in a year and this is somebody who usually fights two or three times a year. Due to his suspension, Alvarez wasn’t able to get a quick fight under his belt to stay fresh and active. This is the longest Alvarez has been out of the ring since making his pro debut back in 2005. Regardless, Alvarez should have lost his first bout since his 2014 fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr, and he would have received the loss if it wasn’t for judge Adalaide Byrd, and her ridiculous scorecard. Alvarez was outboxed in the first meeting and it wasn’t even that close. Alvarez is 28 years old, stands at 5’9”, has a 70 inch reach and an orthodox stance. Alvarez is known for his extreme punching power and has produced knockouts in eight of his last 13 victories. Alvarez’s overall offensive ability is elite, as he’s one of the best combination punchers in the sport, and he has a proven chin and is sharp defensively to go along with it. Alvarez does a nice job of bobbing and weaving punches without giving up much position, and he was able to take punches from GGG, something you’re not used to seeing. You just want to see Alvarez be a little more aggressive in this contest and try to dictate the pace of the bout. This will be Alvarez’s 11th career fight in Nevada.
I picked Alvarez to win the first bout, but he was clearly outboxed and deserved to receive the loss. Alvarez is the younger, more athletic fighter and has a considerable edge defensively, but none of that mattered when Golovkin was pushing the pace and being the aggressor. Golovkin out punched Alvarez in 10 of the 12 rounds, and it was clear his shots were wearing down Canelo, making him less eager to respond with offense. If Alvarez isn’t going to control the fight, he’s going to get abused by the powerful Golovkin. GGG has clear defensive hiccups, but I’m not sure that matters when he’s able to smile at Alvarez and keep coming forward. If Alvarez can’t make Golovkin think twice about slowing down his offensive attack, he’s in trouble. GGG is pretty much unstoppable when he gets to control the fight and throw the amount of punches he did in the first meeting. We’re also likely going to get an angry Golovkin considering he was robbed, so that’s something to weigh in as well. That’s without even mentioning the long layoff for Alvarez, something he’s never experienced in his career and has a history of throwing fighters off. It’s not easy to miss a year and be thrown right into the ring against elite competition.
Alvarez is probably the better overall boxer, but I didn’t see enough from him that makes me confident in doubling down. I also don’t like Alvarez taking a year off due to his suspension. I’m siding with Golovkin to get the actual victory this time.