Mikey Garcia vs. Errol Spence Boxing Preview, Pick, Odds, Prediction - 3/16/19
Photo by Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia
Boxing: Saturday March 16, 2019 (AT&T Stadium)
The Line: Mikey Garcia +437 / Errol Spence -518 -- Over/Under:
TV: FOX PPV
Mikey Garcia and Errol Spence fight Saturday at AT&T Stadium for the International Boxing Federation World Welterweight Title.
Mikey Garcia enters this fight with a 39-0 record that includes 30 knockouts. This will be Garcia’s fifth fight since 2017, and he’s coming off a July win over Robert Easter Jr. Garcia had a highly productive 2018 with wins over Easter and Sergey Lipinets, and he makes a stronger case for being the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world with a victory here. In his recent victory, Garcia landed 32 percent of his punches and controlled majority of the fight to where he won rather comfortably. Garcia is a 31-year-old American who stands at 5’6”, has a 68 inch reach and an orthodox stance. While Garcia is known for his punching power and can end things on his terms, his last three bouts have ended in a decision. Garcia has done a better job of relying on his patience and IQ to breakdown his opponent, improve his conditioning and show he can work effectively behind a jab while not looking for the quick finish. Garcia is quickly becoming more of a balanced fighter, who puts his punches together cleaner, and that’s putting him higher on lists when it comes to the boxing rankings. A win here and Garcia has to be considered a top five pound for pound boxer in the world. This will be Garcia’s ninth career fight in Texas.
Errol Spence enters this fight with a 24-0 record that includes 21 knockouts. This will be Spence’s fourth fight since 2017 and is coming off a June win over Carlos Ocampo. Spence boxed just eight rounds in two 2018 fights, and he’ll look to defend his belt for the third straight fight. Spence landed a body shot in his fight against Ocampo, ending the bout in the first round and showing just how vicious those body shots are from The Truth. Spence is a 29-year-old southpaw who stands at 5’9” and has a 72 inch reach. Spence has now produced finishes in each of his last 11 fights and five of his last six fights have ended in the seventh round or earlier. Spence is highly athletic, moves well in the ring and his relentless work to the body is downright scary. Spence is constantly looking to land shots to the midsection, and it not only wears down his opponent over time, but it’s shown it can end a fight altogether. Spence’s power and offensive attack is one of the best and most exciting in the sport right now, but I still have questions about his conditioning considering he’s seen the 10th round just twice in his career. Regardless, Spence is a boxer on the rise and quickly moving up on those pound for pound lists. This will be Spence’s sixth career fight in Texas.
I have all of the respect for Garcia, as he doesn’t get enough credit for his ability, and he’s shown his last few fights just how smart he is and his ability to break guys down over the course of the bout. The problem is I don’t bet against Spence. The guys relentless body work and quickness puts him in a class of his own. It also doesn’t help that Spence is the much bigger fighter not only in height, but he also has a three inch reach advantage. Garcia has shown his toughness at times, but he has yet to be in the ring with a straight killer like Spence, who is going to test that midsection and is relentless on the attack.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Spence won this fight by knockout, extending his streak to 12 straight finishes. Spence remains undefeated.