Yordenis Ugas vs Errol Spence Boxing Picks, Predictions, Odds 4/16/22

Errol Spence and Yordenis Ugas fight in a boxing match Saturday at AT&T Stadium for the WBA (Super) welterweight title. Spence enters this fight with a 27-0 record that includes 21 knockouts. Ugas enters this fight with a 27-4 record that includes 12 knockouts.

This will be Spence’s fourth fight since 2019, and he’s coming off a December (2020) win over Danny Garcia. Spence started off strong, winning nearly all of the first six rounds, and showed flashes of being the fighter he was before his accident. Spence has seen his last three fights go to the judges, which means he hasn’t had a stoppage since Carlos Ocampo, which was almost four years ago. Spence is 32 years old, a southpaw who stands at 5’9” and has a 72-inch reach. Spence is highly athletic, moves well in the ring, and his relentless work to the body makes him one of the best boxers on the planet. Spence is constantly working the midsection of his opponent, and it makes things easier for him as the fight drags out. Spence is a compact puncher who doesn’t waste much motion in his shots, and he’s got some of the best pop in this division. With a nasty uppercut and quick hooks, Spence’s offensive attack is a thing of beauty. With a fight under his belt and him back in the swing of things, we should see Spence more comfortable this time around. This will be Spence’s eighth career fight in Texas.

Ugas has won 10 of his last 11 fights, and he’s coming off an August win over Manny Pacquiao. Ugas is coming off a competitive fight where he threw half the amount of punches of his opponent but was highly more accurate with his shots and awarded the victory. Successfully defending his belt, Ugas now looks for the biggest win of his career. Ugas is a 35-year-old Cuban who stands at 5’9”, has a 69-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Ugas is a decorated boxer with Olympic medals to his name, and he’s been improving his pro resume the last few years. Ugas is a smooth athlete who is polished defensively and puts his punches together quite nicely on the offensive end. Ugas throws very clean combinations to the body and has a right hand that does most of his power damage. Ugas picks and chooses his spots, which leads to fewer shots thrown, but usually quite accurate. This will be Ugas’ second career fight in Texas.

Ugas at this price is quite attractive when you consider his resume, especially as of late. Ugas just beat Manny and did give Shawn Porter all he could handle. You usually don’t see prices like this next to quality fighters. With that said, Spence is a class or two above Ugas, as he has a power edge, his game plan with the body work is unmatched, and he’s the bigger fighter of the two with a three-inch reach advantage. I’ve been driving the Spence bandwagon for years, and he’s done nothing to get me off. There were concerns after the accident, but Spence did quiet some of those with a solid performance against Garcia. Spence should look even better with time off and more preparation.

Give me Spence by decision to shave down the price.