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Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats Free Pick 9/14/13

Louisville Cardinals (2-0) at Kentucky Wildcats (1-1)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Commonwealth Stadium)

The Line: Kentucky Wildcats 10.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


The 7th ranked Louisville Cardinals try to make it 3-0 as they hit the road to face in-state rival Kentucky Saturday at noon on ESPN.

Louisville made it business as usual this past weekend as they dominated the Eastern Kentucky Colonels 44-7.  The Cardinals built a comfortable 37-0 lead behind the stellar play of sensational quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who was 23-32 for 397 yards and 4 TD’s.  Bridgewater connected with DeVante Parker 5 times for 134 yards and 2 TDs and was led in rushing by Senorise Perry who was very average with only 36 yards but blocked well and reached the end zone himself.  On D, the Cardinals dominated up front from the get go and likely would have pitched the shutout if not for letting their reserves get some PT late in the contest.  The Cardinals finished with 475 yards of offense to Eastern Kentucky’s 206.  The Cardinals will face a much stiffer test in Kentucky this weekend.

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats Free Pick 9/14/13

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

The Kentucky Wildcats got their first win of 2013 with a 41-7 whopping of Miami (OH).  The high octane Kentucky offense finally hit its stride in this one as quarterback Maxwell Smith connected with three different wideouts for touchdowns of 44, 88, and 56 yards.  Smith was hitting on all cylinders and finished the day with 310 yards and no picks in pretty much 3 quarters of action.  The Kentucky defense was extremely impressive as well a week after letting Western Kentucky rack up a ton of yards and 35 points. Kentucky held Miami (OH) to just 122 yards of offense and routinely forced 3 and outs and held Miami out of Wildcat territory. Kentucky still has plenty to work on as the Wildcats racked up an eye popping 117 yards in penalties -- something that has to be corrected if they want any chance of upsetting Louisville.

Some trends to consider - Louisville is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 against the SEC and Kentucky is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games on turf.

This game has all the makings of a shootout and the deciding factor will be which defense can show up and keep the opponents offense off the field.  I think the easy choice here is Louisville -- they are too deep and too talented and while Kentucky’s D looked fantastic last week, they were not facing arguably the best quarterback in the country.  I expect Bridgewater to keep his heisman train rolling and the Cardinals to pull away in the second half for a 2-3 touchdown victory and the cover.

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