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Baylor Bears vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Free Pick 9/21/13

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-1) at Baylor Bears (2-0)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 4:00 pm (Floyd Casey Stadium)

The Line: Baylor Bears -27.5 -- Over/Under: 70 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: The Bears enter this game off a bye week and a 70-13 thrashing of Buffalo in week two that saw them put up a school record 70 points and 781 total yards, just one week removed from scoring a record 69 against Wofford. Louisiana-Monroe, meanwhile, comes into the game 2-1 and fresh off a 21-19 squeaker at Wake Forest, where they thwarted a 4th quarter Demon Deacons rally to seal the victory.

The Breakdown: It’s probably safe to say that Art Briles has engineered a high octane offensive system that’s here to stay, predicated on speed and a big arm, both of which are plentiful in Waco. RG3 and Nick Florence mastered that system, but Jr. QB Bryce Petty has been plug-and-play thus far and we have yet to see any real drop-off. We’ll know more once Baylor starts facing teams with an actual pulse, but Lousisiana-Monroe should provide the Bears with their stiffest test of the season. In two games, Petty has connected on 32-of-40 for 650 yards and 4 touchdowns, Jr. RB Lache Seastrunk has rushed for 261 yards and 5 touchdowns on 28 attempts, and wide receivers Sr. Tevin Reese and Jr. Antwan Goodley have caught 9 balls for 227 yards and two touchdowns, and 9 balls for 214 yards and two touchdowns respectively. Baylor has outscored their two opponents by a combined score of 139-16 and outgained them in total yards 1,473-596. Defensively, the Bears have held their two opponents to a combined 13-of-37 third down conversions and forced five turnovers.

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Baylor Bears vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Free Pick 9/21/13

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Louisiana-Monroe comes in off a big win at Wake Forest where Sr. QB Kolton Browning completed a career-high 43-of-68 attempts for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns. Soph. WR Rashon Caesar caught 10 passes for 84 yards. Caesar leads the team in receiving with 21 receptions for 218 yards. In back-to-back wins, the Warhawks have outgained their opponents in total yards 995-562 and points 69-29.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games, the total has gone over in 5 of Baylor’s last 7 games, and the total has gone over in 4 of their last 5 home games. Louisiana-Monroe is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games, 9-4 SU in its last 13 games, 5-2 SU in its last 7 road games, and the total has gone under in 4 of its last 6 road games.

Rick’s Pick: Baylor opened as a 27.5 home favorite and that number saw a bit of movement before settling on 27. While the Bears will probably be able to score at will, there’s the matter of Kolton Browning for the Warhawks, who’s likely to put the ball up 50 times and could keep it closer than the 4 TD spread. The 70 point total is also a huge number, but not for these two QB’s.

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