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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick 9/28/13

Virginia Cavaliers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Panthers (2-1)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 12:30 pm (Heinz Field)

The Line: Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 -- Over/Under: 52 See the Latest Odds

TV: gameplan/ESPN 3

The Virginia Cavaliers travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia is 2-1 on the year after destroying VMI 49-0 on Saturday. The Cavaliers beat BYU at home to begin the season and then they were dismantled by Oregon at home in week two. Against VMI, Virginia gained 580 total yards on offense with 357 yards coming on the ground. QB Watford completed 18 of 25 passes for 206 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions in the win. The rushing attack was superb led by RB Hamm and RB Parks, who combined for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns. Parks also led the team in receiving with 3 catches for 69 yards. The Cavaliers defense held VMI to 79 total yards and forced two turnovers in the game. Virginia controlled the clock offensively and they were able to get off the field on 3rd on defense. VMI is not a legitimate opponent for Virginia but it was a good game for the Cavaliers to work some things out on both sides of the ball. The Cavaliers will have to take their A game on the road this weekend as they play their second conference game in Pittsburgh.

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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick 9/28/13

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sport

The Pittsburgh Panthers are 2-1 on the year after going on the road and beating Duke 58-55 on Saturday. The Panthers lost their season and home opener to Florida State and then beat New Mexico at home in week three of the season. At Duke, the Panthers gained an outstanding 598 total yards on offense, with 424 coming through the air. QB Savage played great, finishing 23 of 33 for 424 yards and six touchdowns. WR Street finished with 6 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns, while WR Boyd finished with 8 catches for 154 yards and three touchdowns. The rushing attack was led by RB Conner, who finished with 173 yards on 26 carries with one touchdown. The Panthers should have won by more than three considering they forced four turnovers in the win. However, Pittsburgh allowed 532 yards on defense, as they had trouble stopping Duke’s passing attack in the second half. This week, Pittsburgh will head home to play their third conference game of the season.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 games overall.

These two teams have not played one another since 2007 when UVA dominated Pittsburgh 44-14 at home. Pittsburgh tends to throw the ball a bunch and Virginia may limit their production offensively if the Panthers don’t establish the run first. Virginia is vulnerable up front on defense, but they are decent in the secondary. Pittsburgh is not good defensively, so I think the Cavaliers should put up some points on the road in this one. I’ll take the points with Virginia on the road and I’ll also lean towards the over.

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