Southern Methodist Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs Free Pick 9/28/13
Southern Methodist Mustangs (1-2) at TCU Horned Frogs (1-2)
NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Amon Carter Stadium)
The Line: TCU Horned Frogs -18.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: Fox Sports One
The 1-2 SMU Mustangs stay in state for the second straight week as they face off against the 1-2 TCU Horned Frogs Saturday at noon.
SMU will look to get back on track after being dismantled by an angry Texas A&M squad this past weekend 42-13. SMU kept it close for a bit but the high powered Aggie offense and Johnny Manziel blew things open in the 2nd quarter with 18 points and a 32-6 halftime lead. Garrett Gilbert struggled to get things going through the air as he dinked and dunked his way to 310 passing yards and just one TD on 62 passing attempts -- a season high for Gilbert. Kennan Holman scored the Mustangs lone touchdown and was the recipient of a large amount of the Mustangs targets, hauling in 11 passes for 133 total yards. On defense, the Mustangs were thrashed for 581 yards and committed a number of boneheaded penalties -- 111 yards in total. SMU will need to clean things up on the defensive side of the ball if they want to avoid making it two straight home state losses.
TCU has struggled to find their footing this season after winning early and often over the past few seasons. The Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week and prior to that, they fell 20-10 to Texas Tech -- and also fell out of the top 25 poll with the loss. All eyes will be on quarterback Trevone Boykin, who will need to play better if the Horned Frogs want to rebound and make this season a success. Against Texas Tech, Boykin was impressive on the ground with 101 yards but struggled through the air as he only threw for 184 yards and two interceptions. B.J. Catalon had another TD on the ground and has now rushed for 3 total TD’s for the season. The usually stout Horned Frog defense will be under the spotlight as well after yielding 37 points to a usually offensively challenged LSU team and 20 to their in-state foes two weekends ago. I expect them to dial it up early in this one and try to rattle Gilbert and seize control of the momentum in a must win contest.
Some trends to consider -- SMU is 5-16-1 against the spread in their last 22 versus the Big 12 and TCU is 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 after a bye week.
A bye week and a superior roster are good ingredients to get back on the winning track -- TCU has both this week. Look for Boykin to hit his stride early and to provide a similar headache for a SMU defense that has struggled to stop dual threat quarterbacks dating back to last season.
SMU will keep it close for a half on the ground before the Horned Frogs pull away in the second half for the late 3 TD victory and cover.