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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats Free Pick 10/5/13

Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Boone Pickens Stadium)

The Line: Oklahoma State Cowboys -14.5 -- Over/Under: 59 See the Latest Odds


Storyline: The Cowboys dropped to #21 in the rankings this week after laying an egg Saturday against a West Virginia side they outdid in almost every statistical category except the 30-21 final score. K-State, meanwhile, also stumbled 31-21 Saturday in a contest framed by the sudden rebirth of a Texas defense that surrendered a whopping 822 combined rushing yards to its previous two opponents.

The Breakdown:  This time last week, things were looking pretty solid for Ok State. They were unblemished at 3-0 and with upcoming games against West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU and Iowa State, the road to 7-0 and a probable top 10 ranking looked trouble-free. But against the Mountaineers, 322 yards and 3 touchdowns from Soph. QB J.W. Walsh wasn’t enough to overcome three turnovers, two missed field goals, 10 penalties for 96 yards and 20-of-47 passing. Among the things the Cowboys did right, though, were holding RB Charles Sims and the WVU running game to just 68 total yards, while racking up 433 total yards of offense of their own. Jr. WR Josh Stewart had a monster day, catching 7 balls for 127 yards and a touchdown. On the defensive side, the Cowboys surrendered 388 total yards, 320 passing, held the Mountaineers to 8-of-22 third down conversions and forced two turnovers.  

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats Free Pick 10/5/13

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

K-State also seemed to have overlooked its week 5 opponent, a Texas Longhorn team many thought would still be reeling from complete defensive shutdowns in its last two games against BYU and Ole Miss, in which they conceded 822 rushing yards. The Wildcats looked to have the right formula, a zone read option offense manned by either Jr. Jake Waters or Soph. Daniel Sams at QB, coupled with leading rusher Sr. RB John Hubert, who just went over the century mark  for the first time this season against UMass the previous week with 118 yards on 18 carries. But the running game sputtered with 74 yards from Waters and Sams combined and 41 from Hubert. Jr. WR Tyler Lockett made his case for the Big 12’s best receiver with a record-setting 13 catches for 237 yards, breaking Jordy Nelson’s single game mark. Defensively, K-State surrendered a big day to Soph. Texas RB Johnathan Gray, who rushed for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 attempts.

Betting Trends: Oklahoma State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games, 4-1 SU in its last 5 games, 5-0 ATS in last 5 home games, 5-0 SU in its last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games versus Kansas State, 4-2 SU in its last 6 games against Kansas State, the total has gone under in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 6 games, and the total has gone over in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 6 games. K-State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games, 13-4 SU in its last 17 games, 9-4 ATS in its last 13 road games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games versus Ok State, 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Ok State, the total has gone over in 5 of K-State’s last 6 games versus Ok State, the total has gone under in 8 of K-State’s last 9 road games, and the total has gone under in 4 of K-State’s last 5 games.

Rick’s Pick: The line in this matchup is currently set at -14.5 for Ok State with the over/under at 59 points. Laying down two touchdowns here is a bit much after the Cowboys couldn’t stop a WVU side that was shutout against Maryland and needed late-game heroics to get past William & Mary. The season starts now for Ok State and although I can’t see them dropping two straight, I don’t envision a lot of points either so the under looks like the better play at the moment.

Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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