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Duke Blue Devils vs. Navy Midshipmen Free Pick 10/12/13

Navy Midshipmen (3-1) at Duke Blue Devils (3-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 12:30 pm (Wallace Wade Stadium)

The Line: Duke Blue Devils -3 -- Over/Under: 58.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: Gameplan/ESPN3

The Navy Midshipmen travel to Duke to play the Blue Devils on Saturday afternoon.

Navy improved to 3-1 on the season after defeating Air Force 28-10 on Saturday. The Midshipmen beat Indiana and Delaware to start the season and then lost to Western Kentucky before beating Air Force. Early in the week, the status of the game was still up in the air due to the restrictions of the U.S. Government's mass furlough, but an exception was made late in the week. Against Air Force, the Navy offense produced 327 total yards with 273 coming on the ground. QB Keenan Reynolds ran for 126 yards and three touchdowns in the win. On the year, Reynolds has rushed for 385 yards on 81 carries with 7 touchdowns. The Midshipmen defense allowed 202 yards in the first half, but only gave up 111 yards in the second half against Air Force. Navy has not allowed more than 10 points in their last three contests, after giving up 35 to a solid Indiana offense in their season opener. The Midshipmen ranks 22nd in points allowed, giving up only 17.8 points a game thru 4 contests. Navy also ranks 8th in the country in rushing yards, producing 294 yards on the ground per game this season. The Midshipmen will try to establish their rushing attack against a vulnerable Duke defense on the road this weekend.

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Duke Blue Devils vs. Navy Midshipmen Free Pick 10/12/13

Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

Duke is coming off a bye week after improving to 3-2 on the year by beating Troy at home 38-31 two weeks ago. Duke won their first two games before losing at home to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. In the win over Troy, Duke QB Brandon Connette threw three touchdowns passes and ran for two more. Connette completed 20 of 28 passes for 324 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. The Blue Devils produced 514 total yards, with 190 coming on the ground. RB Snead carried the ball 11 times for 108 yards, while Connette adding 55 yards on the ground. The Duke defense did not play well, allowing 512 yards to Troy. The Blue Devils did force one turnover and did a good job getting off the field on third down. Duke ranks 76th in points allowed, giving up 28.2 points per game and offensively ranks 47th in passing yards, producing 258.6 yards per game thru the air. The Blue Devils allowed 38, 58, and 31 points in their last three contests and have not played great against the run which could cause some issues against a Navy team that leans heavily on their rushing attack.

The road team is 4-1ATS in their last 5 meetings. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Duke is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

Duke has won the last two meetings between these two schools, including a 3 point win at Navy two three years ago. Duke played Georgia Tech a few weeks ago and the Yellow Jackets triple-option rushing attack gained 344 yards against the Blue Devils. If Duke hasn’t found an answer for the triple-option scheme they will be in trouble against Navy. Navy looked to run early and often and I think they will have success. However, Navy should have some problems of their own defensively trying to stop Connette and the Blue Devils passing attack. I think this game is a coin flip and I’m going to side with the road underdog in this one. I think the best play will be on the over if it is set at 65 or below, as both teams will find it easy to score in this contest.

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