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Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Free Pick 10/12/13

Baylor Bears (4-0) at Kansas State Wildcats (2-3)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Snyder Family Stadium)

The Line: Kansas State Wildcats 10.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Storyline: If you so much as blinked during the Baylor/West Virginia game Saturday night, you may have missed a touchdown or two. In a mirror image of every game they’ve played to this point, the Bears rolled up record-setting numbers en route to a 73-42 stomping of West Virginia in their Big 12 opener. Kansas State, meanwhile, comes in reeling after a dropping a 33-29 heartbreaker Saturday to Oklahoma State when they appeared to have the game in hand late in the fourth quarter.

The Breakdown: Baylor’s high-flying circus act somehow continues to have its naysayers, even after posting yet another school record 864 total yards and 73 points against WVU, its most credible opponent to date. We’ll get a better idea if there is indeed a hiccup in this team’s future when they face K-State this week, but the Bears offense leads the FBS in so many statistical categories that it’s hard to imagine anyone stopping them, particularly anyone in the Big 12. They lead the FBS in scoring at 70.5 ppg, total offense at 779.5 yards per game, passing offense at 432.3 yards per game, and rank second in rushing at 347.3 yards per game. Defensively, the Bears own the 14th-ranked defense, surrendering an average of 16.3 points per contest. Needless to say, Baylor’s Nov. 7 date against Oklahoma will likely decide the Big 12. Against WVU, Jr. QB Bryce Petty, who ranks 6th in the nation in passing efficiency with a 72.8% completion rate, connected on 17-of-25 for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jr. RB Lache Seastrunk, the nation’s 14th-ranked back, carried 15 times for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jr. WR Atwan Goodley led all receivers with 7 catches for 170 yards and 1 touchdown.

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Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Free Pick 10/12/13

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

K-State played its best offense of the season in what was a must-win to stay in the conference hunt, but came up just short, conceding the eventual game-winner with 4 minutes and change left. Soph. QB Daniel Sams emerged as a solid dual threat, passing for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushing for 118 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. But the Wildcats committed five turnovers and 12 penalties for 92 yards. Defensively, K-State stuffed the Cowboys on the ground, holding them to 85 total rushing yards.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games, 5-1 SU in its last 6 games, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games, 1-4 SU in its last 5 road games, 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against K-State, the total has gone over in 5 of Baylor’s last 7 games, the total has gone over in 8 of Baylor’s last 11 road games, and the total has gone over in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games versus K-State. Kansas State is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games, 5-2 ATS in its last 7 home games, 11-1 SU in its last 12 home games, 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games against Baylor, the total has gone over in 7 of K-State’s last 9 home games, and the total has gone over in 4 of K-State’s last 5 games against Baylor

Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -18.5 for Baylor with a 72 point total, but this could be the first bump in the road for the Bears as far as the spread. With the emergence of Daniel Sams at QB, K-State is well-equipped for a shootout. Baylor won’t be stopped on offense, but in a conference road game where the Bears will finally have to play some defense, the over is the safer play.

 Follow me on Twitter @SCPRick

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